The poll of 625 likely voters shows Obama leading among crucial independents, 48-39.

"The state remains a toss-up, which is bad news for McCain as he must win Florida to have any chance of winning the presidency," said Mason-Dixon managing director Brad Coker. "His best hope could be the racial composition of Florida's 'undecided' voters, of whom, 84 percent are white." ...

The poll has Obama and McCain dead even — at 46 percent each — in the bellwether Tampa Bay region, which consistently goes for the winner.

News Flash! Some votes might be counted!

Now begins the process, courtesy of the "Jeb Bush And His Amen Chorus Of Goose-Stepping Legislators", of not counting votes. Consider:

More than 60,000 Treasure Coast residents already have submitted their votes by mail, but more than 200 of those ballots have been rejected.

The reason: Those voters failed to sign their names inside a box below an oath stating they "solemnly pledge or affirm that I am a qualified and registered voter."

St. Lucie County Supervisor of Elections Gertrude Walker called it discouraging that a voter's effort goes to waste.

By state law, elections officials count a vote-at-home ballot as having been cast once it is received in the office.

At one time, voters who failed to sign the ballots may have been able to correct the situation. A number of smaller counties, including those on the Treasure Coast, used to call those voters to correct the ballots.

One can hope

"Florida Democrats hope for more than just one of their own in the White House as result of Tuesday's election; they also hope for a step toward regaining the influence in Florida politics they almost completely lost in the 1990s." "Democrats' Momentum Is At Stake".

Long days

Pollworkers power through 16-hour days

Welcome to Florida

"McCain plans South Florida rally -- at midnight -- Sunday". See also "Both campaigns blanket Central Florida this weekend", "Sarah Palin rallies Republican supporters in Polk City", "At Winter Park rally, Hillary Clinton urges voters to support Barack Obama", "Overflow crowd comes to see Hillary Cinton", "In Polk City, Sarah Palin bashes Barack Obama, lauds John McCain" and "Palin hammers on taxes; Clinton rallies Dade vote".

Lapdogs

The RPOFers amazing GOTV system - hire a buncha rent-a-drunks and stoke racism. See "The Fla GOP: "AFTER ALL, HE IS BLACK"; Updated". Consider:

Florida Republicans — take a bow, former state chairman Tom Slade — practically invented the intensely targeted voter mobilization program eventually fine-tuned and enhanced by Karl Rove.

Every cycle, their technology and microtargeting only improve. We also hear plenty of anecdotal evidence that the combination of excitement over Sarah Palin and fear of Obama has the GOP base at least as energized as it's ever been.

Class act

"To help Obama effort, Al Gore goes back to Florida".

Spineless

Steve Bousquet:

If Obama wins Florida Tuesday, Crist will instantly become the red governor of a blue state, at least in the eyes of the national media whose attention he craves.

He faces re-election in two years. An Obama win in Florida will energize Democrats here as never before.

So watch for Crist to inch toward the left a little more, to the consternation of his Republican base. (Remember, about half of all Democrats in the Quinnipiac University poll say he's doing a good job.)

A ray of hope in the Villages of idiots

"Democrats in The Villages grow bolder".

Broward GOTV

"Both parties pushing to get Broward County out to vote in final days before election".

EV records

"Thousands flocked to the polls Saturday, enduring rain and waits up to four hours, as Palm Beach County continued a record-setting pace headed into today's final day of early voting. Almost 15,000 people voted early during 12 hours of voting on Friday and elections officials expected to have at least that many after eight hours of voting on Saturday. That pushed early voting totals past 124,000 by Saturday morning, eclipsing the just over 50,000 who voted early in 2004. That doesn't include absentee ballots." "Record-breaking early voting turnout continues". See also "Voting places thronged today for early voting".

The amendments

"Florida voters confused by six state amendments".

"It always leads back to Palm Beach County"

Randy Schultz: "It always leads back to Palm Beach County."

Since 2000 and the recount that captivated the world, it's been that way with so many big stories. Where did many of the 9/11 hijackers spend time? Where did the first of the post-9/11 anthrax attacks take place? Where did the congressional scandal of 2006 that helped shift control of the House come from? (That would involve Mark Foley, Republican.) Where did the congressional scandal of 2008 that won't affect control but scored 10 on the Titillation Meter come from? (That would be Tim "Open Marriage" Mahoney, Democrat.)

Then three weeks ago, The New York Times reported that one of the big (fabricated) stories of this presidential campaign started with a guy well known - though not in a good way - to Palm Beach County.

The story would be the myth that Barack Obama is a Muslim.

Sore loser

"The race between longtime U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings and his challenger, Dr. Marion Thorpe, in District 23, has apparently taken a nasty turn."

Thorpe, former Florida chief medical officer, filed a police report claiming Hastings verbally assaulted him after Thursday night's debate at a Boca Raton synagogue.

Thorpe said Friday that after the debate, Hastings whispered in his ear when they embraced on stage "You mention that impeachment ... again and I'm taking you out permanently."

'Ya reckon?

The Orlando Sentinel editorial board: "Bypassing contribution limits is dangerous, unethical politics".

"The 'same criminal laws' for which Casey Anthony is now in jail"?

"This week's example is from circuit-judge candidate Fred Schott, who held a news conference to spotlight problems with opponent Jim Turner's campaign-finance report."

The report showed Mr. Turner's campaign spent more than it received in donations. That's a no-no under election statutes, and a legitimate issue in a race between would-be guardians of the law.

But Mr. Schott leaped to the conclusion that Mr. Turner could have written bad checks and violated one of the "same criminal laws" for which Casey Anthony is now in jail.

VRA

"The U.S. Justice Department will send election monitors to Hillsborough and two other Florida counties Tuesday in a nationwide effort to ensure that voting rights laws are followed."

The three Florida counties, including Duval and Seminole, are among 29 nationwide where more than 800 Justice Department personnel will look for evidence of voter fraud, racial discrimination, attention to voters with disabilities and whether the federal law on provisional ballots is followed.

Luv them guv'ment contracts

"Big businesses raise eyebrows with big bucks for School Board chairman initiative".

Funny guy

"When the Boston Tea Party's presidential candidate Charles Jay went to register to vote in Florida this summer the clerk at the elections office wasn't sure what to do." "In the 2008 election, time to party like it's 1773".

Wish on

"Hard times are haunting Florida with falling tax revenues, but that hasn't scared state agencies out of asking for more money." "Fla. state agencies start rolling out wish lists".

No match mess; expect litigation

"The state released a new and larger "no match" list Monday of 12,165 names, compared with 8,867 on an earlier list released Oct. 16."

More than 2,000 new Tampa Bay voters are on the state's "no match" list of unverified identities, and their votes in next week's election may not count as a result.

Those people, part of more than 12,000 statewide, must cast provisional ballots unless they can quickly resolve discrepancies between their completed voter registration forms and driver license or Social Security numbers in government databases.

African-Americans and Hispanics combined account for 55 percent of would-be voters on the latest list, which includes 6,194 Democrats and 1,440 Republicans.

The new list reflects unverified new voters from Sept. 8 through Oct. 18, the last day county election supervisors could process registration forms.

Numbers game

"Voters in Florida and Ohio determined the last two presidential elections, but this time only Republican John McCain must win both swing states to claim victory." "With the election 1 week away, it's all about Florida, Ohio voters".

"After showing John McCain with a 1-point Florida lead a week ago, the latest Rasmussen poll shows Barack Obama with a 51-to-47 percent lead in the state." "Rasmussen: Obama +4 in Fla." ("poll of 1,000 likely voters was taken Sunday and has a 3 percent margin of error").

Early voting fiasco

Tom Blackburn is "flabbergasted." He doesn't think he

ever wrote that word in public before. But flabbergasted is the word to describe [his] reaction last week to seeing people lined up in the parking lot at the Palm Beach County Election Supervisor's Office waiting to vote.

And how many found it more convenient to vote on Tuesday, Oct. 21, than on Tuesday, Nov. 4? No, my friends. This is the convenience of the salad bar and self-serve gasoline stations.

Tell me our leaders decided that we don't want to pay for efficient elections. Tell me that it's part of the Republican strategy to hold down the vote among suspected Democrats. Tell me that it's simple incompetence. I can believe any of that. Just don't tell me that standing in line in October for a November election is a convenience.

Voting on a weekday is indeed hard for many working people. The simple solution, used in several countries, is to have a two-day election over a weekend. Since that is simple, we can't do it. For one thing, some polling places would not be available on Sundays. Elections supervisors may inconvenience school kids but not churchgoers.

Early voting is limited on weekends. You get eight hours to vote on a Tuesday if it is hard for you to make it to the polls on Tuesday but only four hours to vote early on Saturday if that is a good day for you.

Again, if convenience was taken into account, it wasn't the voters' convenience.

Brain dead

"Crist confident about Republicans on Nov. 4".

Bilirakis

"Colleagues say he's harnessed the goodwill his father built during 24 years in the U.S. House. He also inherited some of his dad's top aides." "It's like father, like son for Rep. Gus Bilirakis".

Mail ballots

Michael Mayo: "Absentee ballot pitfalls".

Blah, blah, blah

"With one week to go before Election Day, Barack Obama and John McCain are focusing their last-minute pushes on the same place: Florida." "McCain, Obama bring last-minute push to Florida". More:

- "Bill Clinton to join Obama in Kissimmee". See also "Obama plans encore stop in Sunrise before heading to Orlando to campaign with Bill Clinton".

- "McCain echoes Crist in populist message to Floridians".

- "Police estimated about 3,200 people gathered at Sims Park and its outskirts Monday evening in anticipation of a visit by Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden." "Many came just to listen". More: "Biden stumps in Florida, as poll shows race tight", "Joe Biden starts final campaign push in Florida", "Biden returns to Florida this week" and "Biden brings Democratic message to Pasco".

- "Bethune-Cookman University students, faculty rally to vote early".

- "Central Florida Palin rally focuses on key area for swing-state voters" See also "Palin in Osceola: It's not over yet" and "At Tampa rally, Palin addresses clothes controversy". Mr. Ruth has more: "Look! The Empress Is Wearing New Clothes".

- Caroline Kennedy will "make stops in Naples and The Villages on Tuesday." "Caroline Kennedy, daughter of President John F. Kennedy, to attend local rallies"

Amendment 2

"Gay marriage issue inflames tensions".

"So sweeping and so lavishly funded "

"Across Florida, there are about 60 such offices, an estimated 500 paid organizers and tens of thousands of Ervin Bakers on the front line. Florida Republicans have been fielding daunting get-out-the-vote programs for years, but this is the most massive organizing operation Florida has seen from a presidential campaign. So sweeping and so lavishly funded is the volunteer-focused campaign that many Democrats think, win or lose, Obama's efforts will reverberate well beyond this election cycle in Florida." "Obama assembles a volunteer army in Florida".

Cuba ... what's that?

"A trio of congressional contests billed as a referendum on Miami's evolving Cuban-American community have largely ignored the issue of Cuba." "Economy, not Cuba, at heart of 3 congressional races".

War ... what war?

"Congressional candidates Joe Garcia and Annette Taddeo criticized their GOP opponents for not helping war veterans. " "Garcia, Taddeo rip rivals on vets".

Joe 'three-pack

"The Florida Democratic Party's lawyer defended a "three-pack" advertisement aimed at Republican Peter Boulware on Monday and said backers of the GOP legislative candidate are trying to intimidate local TV stations." "Lawyer for Democratic Party defends 'three-pack' ads".

Good luck

The Tallahassee Democrat editorial board: "There are several good environmental reasons that Florida's Environmental Regulation Commission on Wednesday should approve new fuel efficiency and anti-pollution standards for new passenger vehicles — not the least of which is the Sunshine State's high level of greenhouse gas emissions." "Legislature should debate auto emissions".

Voter protection

"The Barack Obama campaign will deploy hundreds of bilingual attorneys to Central Florida polling places on Election Day to deal with potential problems Hispanics might encounter with the state's "no match, no vote" law." "Obama campaign aims to ensure Hispanic vote counts".

Ares

"Next president may drop shuttle successor Ares I".

"Independent" this

"Since barely winning his Republican-leaning congressional district after the Mark Foley implosion of 2006, Mahoney has downplayed his party affiliation. He skipped the Democratic convention, refused to formally endorse Barack Obama and describes himself as "an independent voice" in campaign literature that doesn't mention he's a Democrat."

Many local Dems have been cool toward Mahoney. He didn't come up through the local ranks, switching his registration from Republican to Democrat in 2005 after being recruited to run by U.S. Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill., and other inside-the-Beltway Democrats.

State University System Chancellor

"Florida's 11 public universities will head into this year's legislative session hurting financially, struggling to compete academically, and leaderless, following the resignation this fall of 3-year State University System Chancellor Mark Rosenberg. Members of a search committee charged with finding Rosenberg's replacement met for the first time Monday, giving themselves until July 1, 2009 to fill Rosenberg's seat." "Interim university system chancellor expected to be named Tuesday".

As the presidential race narrows to a handful of states where the two candidates are clawing to get over the top, Florida would be each man's top prize. And the Tampa Bay area is their key to Florida.

As in 2000 and 2004, the race here has exploded in a welter of television ads, "robocalls," visiting celebrities and mega-rallies.

The result, according to experts, political insiders and a rash of conflicting polls, is a race in Florida that's simply too close to call. Either candidate could win.

But for John McCain and Barack Obama, a win would have drastically different meanings.

Obama can win the presidency in Florida, but he can't lose it here.

McCain can lose the presidency in Florida, but he can't win it here.

You can thank the RPOF for Florida's early voting mess

To be sure, "some voters fault election supervisors for too few sites or machines."

But there's a bigger culprit — the Legislature.

Three years ago, legislators passed a huge elections bill (HB 1567). Some changes were voter-friendly, such as allowing anyone to request an absentee ballot without having to give a reason why.

The bill also limited early voting to eight hours a day, and to no more than eight hours on a weekend. That did away with 12-hour early voting sessions for people who work long hours.

The law also limited early voting sites to elections offices, libraries and city halls even though elections officials wanted to use other sites.

Democratic legislators voted against the bill and suspected the shorter hours were a Republican plot to suppress the Democratic turnout.

"They did it on purpose," Gelber said. "This was a rank antidemocracy power grab."

All nine Democrats in the state's congressional delegation sent Browning a letter, urging him to expand early voting hours next week and to require the early voting sites to be open Sunday. Browning says he has no plans "at this time" to do so, and it is not clear that he has that power.

As of Thursday, 609,000 people voted early. Democrats had a big lead, further evidence that Democrats are more likely to vote early while Republicans tend to request absentee ballots more.

"The Case of the Baffling Ballots"

Randy Schultz: "When the world wasn't watching, a Florida judge settled an election-law case like the Florida Supreme Court tried to settle the 2000 presidential recount."

Mr. Bush's attorneys would have liked Judge Francis, up to a point. They would have liked the fact that he opposed a revote, as the Florida Supreme Court did in 2000. But they would not have liked the fact that Judge Francis wanted to look for every possible vote. They also would not have liked the fact that he said, " ... county canvassing boards have a ministerial duty to count all of the ballots cast in an election." In December 2000, the Florida Supreme Court told all counties that hadn't to look for every valid vote. As the counties were doing so, the U.S. Supreme Court stopped the hand-counting. Mr. Bush became president-elect three days later.

All through the 2000 recount, most judges at all levels in Florida ruled for the voters. Judge Francis was lucky. He didn't have to hear the world comment on his ruling, which probably won't even be appealed. He won't face a campaign to oust him. Still, eight years later, it's good to see that voters still matter most to the Florida courts.

Bringin' the beer

"Cindy McCain, wife of Republican presidential candidate John McCain, and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani will be campaigning the old-fashioned way Sunday." "Cindy McCain, Giuliani campaign in PBC Sunday".

See also "Rally, hip-hop concert in Fort Lauderdale urges youth to go to polls" and "Celebrities highlight campaign events planned in Broward County".

"GOP stumps in Orlando", "Biden's Wife Visits Tampa" and "Biden's wife hits Valencia".

"No match" fallout

"Though Florida's ID screening process targets a small percentage of voters, it has triggered a major political dispute and has divided counties."

With Election Day a week away, about 2,700 people who registered to vote over the past two months in Miami-Dade and Broward remain on the state's controversial ''unverified'' list.

None of the mostly black, Hispanic and Democratic would-be voters will be turned away at the polls. But they stand to face different hurdles in each county and -- at least potentially -- different odds of having their votes counted.

The separate standards in Florida's two largest counties reflect a statewide political rift over how to handle thousands of voters flagged by Florida's Voter Verification Law, known as the ''no-match'' law.

Miami-Dade is among counties opting to allow unverified voters to resolve discrepancies in identification documents at the poll and use a regular ballot -- if they can offer proof they are who they say they are.

Broward and others will follow procedures set by Secretary of State Kurt Browning that require either clearing ID questions first with elections offices or filling out a ''provisional'' ballot.

"Six proposed amendments"

"Voters will have a chance to change the Florida Constitution in several ways in the Nov. 4 election. Six proposed amendments are on the ballot, and a 60 percent vote for any one will make it law." "Amendments on Nov. 4 ballot would allow several changes in Florida Constitution".

Poll watchers

"Legal teams for the Barack Obama and John McCain campaigns will deploy thousands of poll watchers to Florida voting sites to keep an eye out for possible irregularities in the presidential election." "Both parties to guard polls on Election Day".

Question: are GOP poll watchers really there to "guard" the polls?

"During early voting in Apopka last week,"

a Republican poll watcher took down the names of disabled voters who appeared to be mentally incompetent and who may have been directed on how to vote by their caregiver.

Meanwhile, at a Winter Park polling site, a Democratic poll watcher assured a voter that she could wear her pin for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama even though a voter in line told her to take it off.

Throughout Central Florida, growing armies of poll watchers enlisted by the two major parties are taking very different approaches to monitoring the vote.

CD 15

"The open seat for U.S. House District 15 held by Dave Weldon has attracted four candidates hoping to win the spot in November." "Space Coast jobs, health care dominate U.S. House District 15 race".

"The changing Latino electorate in Florida"

"The changing Latino electorate in Florida is a tricky issue for both presidential campaigns. These days it takes more than a stop in Miami's Little Havana and a quick anti-Castro speech for candidates to win the Hispanic vote. Immigration from Central and South America has made the Hispanic voting population much more varied and diluted the power of conservative Cuban exiles at the polls." "Diversity among Hispanics presents challenge for presidential campaigns".

Poor Tom

"Tom Feeney's path to Congress was easy. As Florida House speaker in 2002, he used his power to carve a safe seat for himself."

In the final weeks, Feeney is running an ad that says Kosmas "wanted drivers' licenses for illegals and terrorists." It shows the menacing face of Mohamed Atta, one of the 9/11 hijackers.

The ad has no documentation, and Kosmas calls the charge a lie and an act of desperation.

Feeney's campaign did not respond to requests to prove the charge. But one who did favor licenses for illegals was former Republican Gov. Jeb Bush, who picked Feeney as his running mate in an unsuccessful first bid for governor in 1994.

His Orlando-area colleague, Republican Ric Keller, broke a personal term-limits pledge and faces a challenge from wealthy businessman Alan Grayson, a Democrat.

Miami's Diaz-Balart brothers, Republicans Lincoln and Mario, who won with nearly 20 percent margins two years ago, are trying to fend off Democrats Raul Martinez and Joe Garcia.

But Feeney is considered the least likely of the group to win.

"He's going to lose," predicted analyst Stuart Rothenberg, who tracks races for the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report.

If only

"Why not VP Crist?"

Off topic

"Authorities are investigating a report that an armed man forced a tour bus driver to drive to the Downtown Disney area." "Bus driver forced to go to Disney area at gunpoint".

"Or so it says in the state constitution"

"Asians can be barred from owning property in Florida - or so it says in the state constitution." "Amendment 1 targets Florida's anti-Asian land law".

I wish I was a "success" ...

... afford to go to college: "With many families strapped, high school seniors are looking for cheaper alternatives to the college of their choice -- and Florida universities are stressed, too. " "Economic downturn forces students to rethink college".

An Ohio thing

"Ohio woman gives birth to triplet granddaughters".

HD 9

"With 10 days to go in Tallahassee's most heated legislative race, both sides are raising legal issues about advertising tactics."

An attorney for Peter Boulware, the Republican nominee for the District 9 House seat, has asked local television stations to stifle a "three-pack" advertisement because it doesn't mention Democratic candidate Michelle Rehwinkel Vasilinda. Instead, it drops the names of a local Senate hopeful and two Democratic House candidates running 400 miles away.

Meanwhile, a local voter has filed a complaint with the Florida Elections Commission against Boulware. It contends that the former Florida State University football star continues unauthorized use of the Seminole spear, and that he shouldn't be in his car dealership's TV commercials.

Huh?

"UPS package containing 14 pounds of pot leads to Orlando man's arrest".

"Unfathomable dumbness"

Carl Hiaasen observes that that Mahoney "arrogant and hypocritical goes without saying, but those flaws are pandemic in politics. What really stands out is Mahoney's unfathomable dumbness. Did he seriously believe he could put his hump buddy on the payroll without anyone knowing? Or, worse, did he assume that nobody would care?" "Did Mahoney think he'd get away with it?".

"Success"?

One supposes the charming folks comprising the The Tampa Tribune editorial board think of themselves, and their owners, as "successful: "Obama's Tax Plan Rewards Everything Except Success".

No comment

Missed this one from last week: "McCain plugs 'Joe' reforms in Florida".

CD 5

"The names on the ballot and the rhetoric surrounding the 5th Congressional District contest sound familiar. Even some of the signs that Republican Ginny Brown-Waite and Democrat John Russell have planted across the county are recycled from the 2006 campaign." "Brown-Waite vs. Russell in rematch for House seat".

A regular brain trust

"Elisabeth Hasselbeck of ABC's The View will introduce Sarah Palin at her rally at the Tampa Convention Center this morning." "Our campaign lineup".

Whoopee!

The St. Petersburg Times editorial board chimes in with this late to the game endorsement: "Obama for president".

He "takes care not to break the rules"

"The Rev. Tom Scott, a Tampa City Council member and pastor of the 34th Street Church of God, takes care not to break the rules. Last week, his church shuttled the elderly to early voting sites and paid for their lunch afterward. He has also put pictures of both McCain and Obama on his church bulletin along with their stances on issues such as the war in Iraq and the economy. Scott said he is careful not to endorse either senator from the pulpit." "Clerics can't be partisan in pulpit".

"You have to ask"

The Palm Beach Post editorial Board: "You have to ask: Why has Martin County received $3.4 million in disputed FEMA reimbursements while St. Lucie County still is waiting - and waiting, and waiting - for the $2.1 million FEMA so obviously owes?" "It's the money, not Mahoney".