If Democratic primary voters have moved to the left in the past decade, Republican voters have moved even further to the right, especially since the financial panic of 2008. So whoever wins the GOP nomination must move further back to the center to attract the moderates and independents who decide elections. The fastest-growing party in Florida is No Party Affiliation.

Which brings us to Mitt Romney, Florida and immigration.

Mr. Romney would like to disown the federal health care law that was fathered by the health care legislation he signed as governor of Massachusetts. The editorial on the opposite page explains why he can't. So that's a problem with conservative Republicans who dominate primaries. Social conservatives recall that as governor Mr. Romney pledged to protect abortion rights, though he now claims to support a "personhood" amendment. Last summer, Mr. Romney said human activity is causing global warming.

So to appease the right wing of the GOP, Mr. Romney apparently has decided to sound like a crazy person on immigration, sounding nothing like the cool, CEO-type candidate he claims to be. Mr. Romney called his policy "self-deportation," which sounds similar to the attempts in Arizona, Georgia and Alabama to hound illegal immigrants out of states and out of the country by allowing local police to check immigration status.

That may thrill tea party voters, but it terrifies Republicans who see their party losing the fastest-growing bloc in the country. That bloc is especially important in Florida, where the Hispanic vote is 13 percent of the electorate, equal to the black vote. Hispanic registration has more than doubled in a decade.

Yet Republicans still pander to Cuban exile voters in Miami, even though Florida's Hispanic electorate is much more diverse. In the Orlando area, new arrivals tend to be Puerto Rican and more Democratic. Unlike the Miami crowd, most Cuban-Americans in the Tampa area welcome President Obama's policy change that has opened up travel to Cuba.

Polls: "Romney has a better chance of beating President Barack Obama in Florida"

"Republicans all over Florida have fallen in love with Newt Gingrich in the last week, but Mitt Romney might make for a better marriage. The evidence: Two new polls showing Romney has a better chance of beating President Barack Obama in Florida."

A Quinnipiac University poll of likely Florida voters released Thursday showed Romney and Obama tied at 45 percent each. The Democratic president holds a 50 percent to 39 percent lead over Gingrich. A Suffolk University/WSVN-Ch. 7 poll found Romney leading Obama 47 percent to 42 percent with Obama ahead of Gingrich 44 percent to 38 percent.

This compares to results of a January 25 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University, showing Romney with 36 percent of likely primary voters to Gingrich's 34 percent. Wednesday's survey showed Gingrich ahead 40 - 34 percent among voters surveyed after the South Carolina primary.

In [yesterday's] survey, men back Romney 36 - 29 percent, a shift from January 25, when men backed Gingrich 37 - 33 percent. Romney leads 40 - 30 percent among women, virtually unchanged. ...

From January 24 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 580 Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

Poll: Nelson faces a tough re-election campaign

"Sen. Bill Nelson faces a tough re-election campaign in a year when Florida voters are dissatisfied with the economy, Congress and President Barack Obama, according to a new Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald/Times/Bay News 9 poll." "Poll: Sen. Nelson holds slim lead in Senate race" (Jacksonville-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research conducted the poll).

Florida's voter suppression schemes under the microscope

"Election experts and Democratic voting advocates told U.S. senators Friday that a Republican-backed overhaul of Florida election laws will suppress Democratic turnout in the nation's biggest battleground state next fall."

Ann McFall of Volusia County criticized the law for not allowing more variety in early voting sites such as churches. And she complained of being forced to "turn in" friends and neighbors for turning in voter registration forms after the required 48 hours, including New Smyrna Beach teacher Jill Cicciarelli, who got a warning letter from the state.

"This is a bad law," said McFall, who predicted students at historically black Bethune Cookman College in Daytona Beach would be caught by the provisional ballot rule because of its traditionally high number of address changes on Election Day.

Mike Ertel of Seminole County [a bit player in the 2000 scam in Seminole County predictably] defended the law, saying it is "vital" to require provisional ballots for voters who move across county lines to ensure that they vote once. He accused critics of the bill of "fear-mongering." Observers seated behind him hissed as he defended the law. ...

Gov. Rick Scott, who signed House Bill 1355 into law last May, was invited to testify but declined to appear, and when Durbin voiced disappointment at Scott's absence, people in the audience laughed.

"Today Bill Nelson and his liberal crony, Dick Durbin, are in Florida to tell us common sense laws that protect our system of democracy from fraud are a bad thing," Republican Party of Florida chairman Lenny Curry said. "Florida's new law represents a reasonable check and balance that invites maximum participation and ensures every Floridian who has the right to vote can do so with confidence in the process."

Romney flip-floppery

"GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney told participants at the Hispanic Leadership Network conference in Miami Friday that as president he would protect and expand legal immigration that conforms to the needs of the business community." "Romney at Hispanic Leadership event: Expand immigration in the U.S., trade in Latin America".

"Bain Capital's Florida record"

"There's no question that Romney grew rich while running Bain Capital, a Boston-based private equity firm that was hugely profitable during the 1980s and 1990s. And there's no debate that he's a more experienced businessman than his Republican rivals or President Obama. But Romney's record as a creator of jobs is a murkier matter."

The company: JTech Communications of Boca Raton

What happened: JTech had 50 to 70 workers when Bain Capital bought 60 percent of the company in 1995. When Bain Capital sold its stake in 2000, the number had risen to 200. When JTech was sold again in 2005, the employee count had fallen to 85.

The company: Dade Behring of Deerfield, Ill.

What happened: Amid a series of mergers, Bain Capital closed Miami plants employing 850 workers. Dade Behring filed for bankruptcy reorganization in 2002, and later was sold for more than $6 billion.

Budget blues

"The Florida House of Representatives on Friday released a $69.2 billion budget that frees up money for schools and avoids the deep cuts to hospitals proposed by Gov. Rick Scott." "House budget spreads cuts across agencies". See also "House budget includes PECO patch" and "Conservation land-buying cut out of House's proposed budget".

Republican debate carnival

The The Tampa Times' Daniel Ruth: "Under the big top at Republican debate".

Suppression advocates hiding under their desks

"[C]ourt documents reveal that four legislators are fighting against testifying in a legal challenge to the state’s controversial elections law passed last year."

Elections law sponsors Sen. Miguel Diaz de la Portilla and Rep. Dennis Baxley — as well as Sen. Paula Dockery and Rep. Seth McKeel — have decided they do not want to talk about the law and their role in its passage. Dockery, R-Lakeland, was among two GOP senators who voted against the controversial bill last year.

Five state senators and five state House members were issued subpoenas by a law firm representing the League of Women Voters and the National Council of La Raza last November. Both groups have intervened in the case of State of Florida vs. United States of America and Eric H. Holder Jr. Holder is the U.S. attorney general.

Blah, blah, blah

"Dozens of Florida's most experienced political hands are closely divided on whether Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney will win Florida's critical presidential primary Tuesday." "Florida insiders divided on who will win Florida presidential primary".

Rubio wows 'em at the Doral Golf Resort

"After bashing each other in the final debate before the crucial Florida primary, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich traveled south to Miami on Friday to woo Hispanic power brokers."

But before either candidate could utter a word, they were upstaged.

Sen. Marco Rubio gave sweeping remarks on immigration — the kind of personal, stirring speech Gingrich and Romney could only wish they had delivered.

Neither Gingrich, his Florida momentum stalled after his commanding South Carolina victory last week, nor Romney, riding a wave after his strong performance in a Jacksonville debate Thursday, could match the reception Rubio received in the Doral Golf Resort & Spa at a conference of the Hispanic Leadership Network, former Gov. Jeb Bush's organization.

Of the two GOP primary frontrunners, the crowd of several hundred — almost all of them Hispanic — clearly preferred Romney, the former Massachusetts governor.

Rivera files Foreign Legion bill

"Rep. David Rivera introduced a bill to give undocumented immigrants legal residency, so long as they join the military." "Rivera introduces a military-only version of DREAM Act".

Darling cuts and runs

"Doug Darling, executive director of the state's main agency for job creation, resigned abruptly from his own job this week, six months after Gov. Rick Scott appointed him."

In a concise letter to Scott, Darling said Thursday he was leaving his post as executive director of the Department of Economic Opportunity for "personal reasons" and that his last day would be Tuesday.

The circumstances surrounding Darling's resignation were still unclear Friday, and lawmakers said they had no reason to expect the sudden departure. ...

Darling's office faced some criticism in November after it released several documents indicating private businesses had failed to create thousands of promised jobs, despite receiving financial incentives over the past 15 years. Additionally, some information had been omitted from the release, and lawmakers and media outlets had requested more details.

Lawsuit protections for MDs

"A top priority for the Florida Medical Association has now made it through two committees in the Florida House." "House moving ahead with lawsuit protections for physicians".

GOPers prefer absentee ballots

"Broward Republicans lag in early voting, prefer absentee ballots".

Super PAC attack

"Super PAC attack: A Super PAC supporting GOP presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich on Friday began airing an ad in Florida, accusing his top rival, Mitt Romney, of being involved in a massive Medicare fraud scheme." "Campaign roundup: super PAC attack".

Romney sidestepping "Personhood"

"Personhood USA — the group behind attempts to define life as beginning at the moment of conception — will co-host its third forum with GOP presidential candidates at a church in Winter Park, Fla., on Saturday. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is not expected to attend." "Third presidential personhood forum slated for Saturday; Romney will not attend".

Latin Builders Association likes Santorum

"GOP primary hopeful Rick Santorum won important support in the Hispanic business community Friday, when the Latin Builders Association, based in Miami, endorsed his candidacy over that of frontrunners Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich." "Santorum wins Latin Builders' endorsement in Miami". Related: "Santorum, Romney impress Hispanic groups in Miami; Gingrich not as much".

Easy street

"Kathy G. Lubbers says it hasn’t been difficult finding her place in the world — a world in which everyone points her out as the daughter of Newt Gingrich, the former U.S. House speaker now fighting it out for the Republican presidential nomination." "Gingrich daughter runs campaign from Key Biscayne".

Fla-baggers make noise

"This time Mitt Romney brought the noise to Central Florida — telling vibrant crowds in Cape Canaveral and Orlando on Friday he will give America sound economic policies that President Barack Obama does not understand." "Boisterous crowds bring energy to Mitt Romney campaign in Central Florida".

Anti-choice crowd runs wild in Tally

"Conservative Florida lawmakers who last year passed a landmark bill that requires women seeking an abortion to first have an ultrasound performed are pushing to go further in 2012." "Conservative Florida lawmakers consider abortion waiting period, other restrictions".

Mack Attack backfires

"U.S. Rep. Connie Mack hit the campaign trail this week to bash Newt Gingrich for saying little about his profitable ties to mortgage giant Freddie Mac — a potent issue in foreclosure-racked Florida."

But when it comes to Mack's profits from Freddie Mac's cousin agency, Fannie Mae, the congressman was mum.

"What's important here is what Newt Gingrich did for Freddie Mac," said Mack, a Republican U.S. Senate candidate from Fort Myers who is campaigning for Romney.

The Romney campaign made Gingrich's estimated $1.6 million Freddie Mac consulting work an issue because it was a two-fer: It showed Gingrich was a Washington insider and it has the potential to stoke resentment in a state where one in 360 properties is in foreclosure.

But the attack also had a boomerang effect.

At Thursday's Republican presidential debate, Gingrich said Romney had made $1 million from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae bonds. Romney responded by noting that Gingrich also had invested with the mortgage giant.

Mack and his wife, California Rep. Mary Bono Mack, have turned a profit as well off Fannie Mae, a government-sponsored enterprise that, along with Freddie Mac, is blamed for stoking the mortgage crisis.

"'Self loathing,' Log Cabin Republicans struggle"

"Called 'self loathing,' Log Cabin Republicans struggle for respect in the LGBT community".

Fair Districts? Never mind

"A House committee gave the final tweaks to the state's redistricting maps Friday and set them up for a final vote next week despite strong criticism from the Fair Districts coalition, which helped bring the new standards into law." "Redistricting maps head to Florida House floor, critics cry foul".

Gingrich has erased a 12-point deficit with Florida voters over the past two weeks and is now about even with Mitt Romney. The former Massachusetts governor was favored by 36 percent of likely Florida Republican voters to 34 percent for Gingrich.

A Jan. 9 poll by Quinnipiac (Conn.) University [had] showed Romney favored 36-24 over Gingrich. ...

Quinnipiac's random telephone survey of 601 Republicans taken Jan. 19-23 has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points which has the two GOP frontrunners within the margin of error. Santorum was third in the latest Florida survey with 13 percent and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul had 10 percent in results released Wednesday.

Gingrich held double-digit leads over Romney among white evangelical Christians and tea party supporters and a slight edge over Romney among male voters.

Empty suits run wild in Tally

"Florida is already leading the charge against the federal government’s health-care overhaul."

But just to be sure that the Supreme Court knows the sentiment of the state’s elected officials, legislators are moving forward with a House memorial that reaffirms the effort of Attorney General Pam Bondi to repeal the Patient Protection and Affordable Health Care Act before the rules are firmly locked into place in two years.

On Tuesday, members of the House Federal Affairs Subcommittee, voting along party lines, backed a memorial against the federal program that is commonly called “Obamacare.”

Rep. Jason Brodeur, R-Sanford, a health-care consultant who sponsored the memorial, HM 1281, said his mostly symbolic proposal is to voice the state’s opinion that health care should be a responsibility of the states rather than the federal government.

"Gringo Spanish and Castro-crackdown plans"

"With their gringo Spanish and Castro-crackdown plans, the two leading GOP candidates are flocking this week to this Latin American-influenced county where 72 percent of the roughly 368,000 registered Republicans are Hispanic. To date, about 54,000 Republicans have cast early and absentee ballots."

Romney heads to the Freedom Tower this afternoon to talk Latin American policy. Gingrich will do the same this morning at Florida International University. Each is also dropping by the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce's forum broadcast by Spanish-language powerhouse Univision. Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, who trail in the polls, are not making any scheduled appearances in Miami today.

On Friday, Gingrich, Romney and Santorum are expected to appear before the Hispanic Leadership Network forum run by Sen. Marco Rubio and former Gov. Jeb Bush, a leader in Latino-Republican outreach. All three are scheduled to then meet with the mighty Latin Builders Association.

Now, the candidates must "square their right-wing rhetoric on things like English-only and immigration in a state that's nearly a quarter Hispanic," Sharry said.

The Republican candidates oppose the pro-immigrant DREAM Act, which many Hispanics support. Liberals are tarring them for being "anti-Hispanic" and a union group is bashing Romney with radio ads in Central Florida.

But Bush said it's pure political posturing.

Yet to be found, $1 billion for education

"Capitol Buzz: Lawmakers search for $1 billion for education".

Big of 'em

"Business, Lawmakers Seek Hiring Favor for Veterans".

"Carefully choreographed plan could implode"

"Personal ambitions have been kept off the record in the Legislature's once-a-decade redistricting fight, but the carefully choreographed plan could implode this week if a House committee proposes and accepts changes to the Senate map."

That would put an end to the gentleman's agreement between the two chambers to accept each other's redistricting maps — and set off a battle that could delay a budget accord.

Anti-choice frenzy

"Florida's perennial abortion battle re-emerged Tuesday as a House panel approved bills that would block abortions after 20 weeks, require 24-hour waiting periods and target abortions that might be motivated by the race or gender of the fetus. The Republican-dominated House Health and Human Services Access Subcommittee approved three bills in party-line votes, after testimony and debate that reflected the country's deep divide on the issue." "House Health Committee Approves Abortion Restrictions".

Fla-baggers mob Gingrich

"If former Florida frontrunner Mitt Romney hoped Newt Gingrich's rise in popularity was a temporary blip, Gingrich's campaign appeared to prove otherwise Tuesday as it drew crowds estimated at 4,000 in Sarasota and 6,000 in Naples." "Gingrich draws thousands in Fla. while Romney's, Santorum's crowds number in hundreds".

"Haridopolos Says Florida Proven Correct"

"Florida’s decision to move its presidential primary up by more than a month is going to pay off for the candidates and the state, Senate President Mike Haridopolos, R-Merritt Island, said Tuesday." "Haridopolos Says Florida Proven Correct on Primary".

They got theirs

"The Villages -- It's an urgent issue seemingly on the minds of many in this retiree mecca, if not the entire state of Florida — how to fix Social Security. And voters' proposed solutions to the tricky problem are just as varied as the stances of the Republican presidential candidates seeking their support." "How to fix Social Security confounds Florida retirees".

Florida's "continuing campaign to privatize education"

"Florida lawmakers want to give parents the power to dictate the future of poorly performing public schools, sparking criticism from parent advocates and others that the effort is part of a continuing campaign to privatize education."

Between the two committee votes, the bills were praised at a Capitol news conference attended by Senate President Mike Haridopolos, as well as representatives of former Gov. Jeb Bush's education foundation and the Florida Chamber of Commerce, among others.

Say anything

"GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich accused President Obama of being a 'Saul Alinsky radical' who works to 'appease the Taliban' at a campaign rally held in a Sarasota airplane hangar today." "In Sarasota, Gingrich calls Obama a ‘Saul Alinsky radical,’ pledges to end Agenda 21 (Updated)".

"Romney, Gingrich take different tacks"

"Mitt Romney ramped up his Florida offensive on Tuesday, releasing his tax returns and offering an alternative State of the Union address, as his rival Newt Gingrich told voters that Romney is too liberal for the Republican Party." "Romney, Gingrich take different tacks in courting Florida voters".

Meanwhile, unlimited campaign contributions gladly accepted

"Three protesters who took part in a national day of action to call on participants of the 2012 Global Alternative Investments Management (GAIM) conference to divest from private prisons were arrested Tuesday." "‘Say no to private prisons’ protesters arrested at investor conference in Boca Raton".

Romney has coined a new term: "self-deportation"

Fabiola Santiago: "Bienvenidos to Miami, Republican candidates. Enjoy your day."

Judging by your theatrical debate antics — necessary in the age of choice, I know, if you want to lure viewers away from the Kardashians roaming New York, the new Univisión telenovela La que no podía amar (The One Who Couldn’t Love) and the cute-dog-vs.-bad-guy episode of Castle on ABC — you’ll feel right at home here.

Ours is a paradise for the silly, the liars and the panderers.

You’ll fit right in.

The silly: Mitt Romney, who has coined a new term in immigration policy — self-deportation.

That’s oh-so-simple and clever a position on immigration reform that it drew laughter from the Monday night primetime debate audience in Tampa. ...

The wealthy corporate raider is so disconnected from reality he didn’t get the Pew Hispanic Center report circulated nationwide alerting everyone to the importance of the Hispanic vote in Florida.

While there were more Hispanic Republicans than Hispanic Democrats in 2006, the scales tipped over after 2008.

According to the Florida Division of Elections’ statistics for the state’s Jan. 31 presidential primary, 1,473,920 Hispanics are registered to vote statewide.

They make up 13.1 percent of the state’s more than 11.2 million registered voters. Of those, 452,619 are registered as Republicans, representing 11.1% of all Republican registered voters, and 564,513 are registered as Democrats, representing 12 percent of all Democratic registered voters. Another 431,131 Hispanics list no party affiliation and 25,657 registered in other parties.

Moving on we have…

The liar: Newt Gingrich, on so many counts personal and professional, that it’s tough to choose one, but hey, we know what the important issue is in Florida, and G is going to out-perform the charming Ronald Reagan and his “ Cuba sí, Castro no!” chant.

Gingrich promises to launch “covert” operations to overthrow the Cuban government.

“I’m talking about using every asset available to the United States, including appropriate covert operations,” Gingrich said

Yippee!

I’ll believe it when I see it.

He was more credible when he provided levity.

"School Choice Week" Session

"VIDEO: ‘School Choice Week’ moves forward with endorsements from conservative groups". Related: "Conservative Christians mobilize for 2012".

"Concerns stall Cat Fund proposal"

"Supporters of the assessment bill say it will make the Florida property insurance market more attractive to out-of-state capital and reduce the short-term exposure of the private market." "Citizens assessment bill moves ahead as its concerns stall Cat Fund proposal".

"Scott's plan ... is devastating and even ridiculous"

"Scott's plan to cut about $2 billion in public funding to hospitals that care for the poor is devastating and even ridiculous, say hospital leaders who predict patient care will suffer if it is enacted." "Florida hospitals bracing for more Medicaid cuts". Related: "Senate proposes sweeping overhaul of disabled care".

Water cleanup plan kerfuffle

"State, environmental groups continue to wrestle over water cleanup plan". See also "House, Senate panels move to waive ratification requirements for proposed water rules".

House slashes health care budget

"Budget slashes 67 DOH administrative positions including a $125,000 deputy secretary post and another 708 'vacant' positions." "Hospitals, nursing home and state employees cut in House health care budget".

Another "stealthy move to privatize"

"It seems like little more than bureaucratic tinkering. Bills now filed in the Florida House and Senate would change the definition of where something called the 'ordinary high water line' is measured on waterways across Florida."

But hunting and fishing groups are up in arms, calling the bills a blatant land grab that will block them from pursuing their favorite pastimes.

"This is where we hunt," explained John Hitchcock, president of the United Waterfowlers of Florida.

Audubon of Florida, Earthjustice and 1,000 Friends of Florida have also condemned HB 1103 and SB 1362 as a stealthy move to privatize between 100,000 and 500,000 acres along the state’s rivers, lakes and streams that currently belongs to taxpayers. It does not affect oceanfront land.

The bills’ backers contend it’s the state that’s grabbing land, not private companies.

"There are thousands of acres of land out there that the state’s going to grab that people are unaware of," said Sam Ard, who lobbies for the Florida Cattlemen’s Association.

The House version of the bill passed its first committee last week on a 9-4 vote. So far the Senate bill has no set hearings.

"bracing for higher tuition bills"

"Florida college students can start bracing for higher tuition bills again come fall. Leaders in the House proposed raising tuition by 8 percent next year at public colleges and universities as part of a budget unveiled Tuesday." "House higher education plan includes tuition increases, budget cuts".

Sharpe may pass on challenging Castor after all

"Whispers are growing louder that Republican Mark Sharpe may press the eject button on his challenge to U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Tampa, in the District 11 congressional campaign." "Sharpe watching redistricting".

State Sen. Greg Evers, R-Baker, claims "vindication"

"State Sen. Greg Evers 'was actively advocating' on behalf of a billboard company that had been talking about hiring his wife when he intervened with the state Department of Transportation about cutting down 2,000 trees, according to a grand jury report released Tuesday."

The Leon County grand jury didn't indict anyone, but found Evers' intervention enabled Bill Salter Advertising to "secure permits by circumventing the law."

Evers, R-Baker, said the report vindicated him: "A jury of my peers found I didn't do anything wrong."

In 2009, Salter wanted DOT permits to cut down more than 2,000 trees along Interstate 10. Salter did not want to pay the normal fee, so executive David McCurdy sought Evers' help.

The grand jury noted that Evers and McCurdy went to high school together and that Evers' wife "was consulted by Salter Advertising about representing the company."

Gingrich grubs for wingnuts

"Crist gets kicked around by Gingrich" ("Yes, the ex-governor is still a whipping boy in GOP circles.")

"So, if you don't deport them, how do you send them home?" Tampa Bay Times political editor Adam C. Smith asked.

"Well, the answer is self-deportation, which is people decide they can do better by going home because they can't find work here because they don't have legal documentation to allow them to work here," Romney replied.

He said Gingrich "resigned in disgrace'' as House speaker, using a line that was already old before he repeated it three more times. Romney hammered him for being an "influence peddler'' in Washington, and for the absurdity of receiving a $1.6-million salary from Freddie Mac for what Gingrich said was work as a "historian.''

There were times when Romney's jabs connected, and times when they seemed too scripted. There were times when Gingrich appeared flustered, and times when he fought back effectively.

Remarkably, there were times when they both made Rick Santorum seem more presidential.

And when it was all done, I'm just not sure Romney's roundhouses helped solve his greatest problem.

In a lot of ways, Romney is the Republican version of Al Gore. The son of a politician who surpassed his father in fame, but never quite graduated to beloved. ...

Romney can take his swipes in speeches and debates, and he can raise his eyebrows at the appropriate moment for a good laugh. But playing pit bull for the camera is not his style.

And while voters may not be versed in every debate topic, they're pretty good at spotting a candidate who isn't committed to what he is saying.

To a large degree, elections are about being likable. Being steady. Being someone Americans can trust while they're going about their lives.

With that in mind, Romney shouldn't waste too much time trying to define his opponent. Instead, he had better hurry up and define himself.

No one seems to care about Ricky

"Scott talks Florida primary on Fox News".

"Seemed rock-solid a week ago"

Derek Catron writes about a Romney "campaign that seemed rock-solid barely more than a week ago"

George Bernardo showed up for Sunday's Mitt Romney rally in a New York Giants football jersey.

For such a fan to risk missing the kickoff to the game that would decide if his team goes to the Super Bowl, it would have been easy to assume Bernardo was as big a fan of Romney as he is quarterback Eli Manning.

That assumption would be wrong.

"I just want to hear what Mitt Romney has to say," the Port Orange doctor said, saying he was having trouble deciding between the former Massachusetts governor and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

His colleague, Greg Parr, agreed, saying later that the speech left him unmoved.

"I'll support whoever the Republican nominee is," said Parr, a urologist with offices in Port Orange. "But I think Gingrich is the candidate who would be the most effective in Washington."

The doctors' ambivalence toward Romney reveals the fissures in a campaign that seemed rock-solid barely more than a week ago. While most of the 2,000 people who rallied with Romney at the Allstar Building Materials lumberyard in Ormond Beach on Sunday were ardent supporters, it was Gingrich who took South Carolina on Saturday -- and the momentum that will be crucial to his hopes in next Tuesday's Florida primary.

"Florida's story of Republican dominance"

"It's an important week for Florida Republicans, so it's a good time to trace the beginning of the dominance of the modern GOP in the state." "Florida's story of Republican dominance starts with a Democrat".

Primary tracker

"Florida presidential primary tracker for Tuesday".

"Preliminaries are over ... time for the main event"

The Daytona Beach News Journal editorial board: "The preliminaries are over. Now it's time for the main event."

Next Tuesday night the nation's eyes will be fixed on the returns from Florida's Republican presidential primary. The first three events on the GOP's 2012 nominating calendar -- the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries -- reduced the Republican field but didn't come close to identifying the eventual nominee. Three contests, three winners. It's up to Sunshine State Republicans to establish a real front-runner in the race for the nomination.

Florida's Jan. 31 primary has loomed large on the GOP calendar for months. But the state's importance isn't tied to state leaders' decision to push the primary date into January -- a move that caused the national GOP to take away half of the state's convention delegates. Florida is critical because it's a large, diverse, bellwether state -- it can go either "red" or "blue" in presidential elections.

Editors show their hands

The Tampa Bay Times editors show their endorsement hands this morning:

Expect more trash talking than policy discussions this week. Republicans gambling on Gingrich are backing an ethically challenged candidate suddenly flush with more casino money. First billionaire casino executive Sheldon Adelson contributed $5 million to a so-called super PAC that aired ads in South Carolina blasting Romney's work at Bain Capital, the private equity firm. Now Aldeson's wife is giving the political action committee, Winning Our Future, another $5 million so Gingrich can play in Florida. It seems casino interests trying to buy the Florida Legislature to get permission to build mega-casinos in the state are trying to buy something even bigger.

"Florida's penchant for being the nation's tattooed neighbor"

Daniel Ruth: "Given Florida's penchant for being the nation's tattooed neighbor who walks around the yard in a Speedo, swilling a beer and blaring Jimmy Buffett's Margaritaville, do we really want to sell the naming rights to our public facilities?"

Let's face it. When it comes to understated elegance, Florida ranks somewhere between Mr. T and a Kardashian.

But that didn't stop state Rep. Irv Slosberg, D-Boca Raton, from pushing a bill that would open the door to the corporate branding of everything from highways to school cafeterias to hiking trails.

The dignity train left a long time ago. No good will come from this.

Charter madness

"Florida parents are taking sides over a controversial piece of legislation known as the parent trigger. The buzzed-about bill would let a majority of parents at low-performing public schools demand dramatic changes at the school, or even have it converted into a publicly financed, privately managed charter school. Similar laws have already passed in California and Texas, sparking debate and controversy along the way." "Critics say ‘parent trigger’ bill favors charters over public schools".

Privatization made EZ

"More-expensive inmates shifted from prisons to be privatized".

Up at the house

"Rep. Allen West of Broward County organized a panel in Washington to call attention for more blacks to join the Republican party." "West urges more blacks to join GOP".

Internet sales tax

"Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff, chair the Senate Budget Subcommittee on Finance and Tax, is drafting a committee bill to enact the tax, including sales tax cuts or holidays to keep the bill 'revenue neutral.' Before finalizing the bill, though, she wants to make sure there is support for the measure in the House." "Internet sales tax bill hinges on House support".

Early voting scaled back

"Several counties scale back hours of early voting in primary".

"It used to be pious baloney. Now it's just desperate baloney"

"Riding his big win in the South Carolina primary, Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich told a Tampa crowd Monday that he's heard former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is stepping up his criticism of him, with more likely to come."

"I prefer personally not to believe it," Gingrich said at a rally in the parking lot of The River Church, east of Tampa. "But on the other hand, if you've been campaigning for six years, and you begin to see it slip away, you get desperate, and when you get desperate you say almost anything, and I think (at) tonight's debate he'll probably stretch the barrier."

To prepare for the debate at the University of South Florida, Gingrich said he had been memorizing old debate lines, like Ronald Reagan's "There you go again."

"I think I'll finally convince him I really am a Reaganite if I use President Reagan's line," the former House speaker said. "This is such baloney. It used to be pious baloney. Now it's just desperate baloney."

Health insurance exchange on the horizon

"Exchanges are centerpiece of federal health care reform. States without an operational exchange by January 2014 will be forced to use one run by the federal government." "House looking at establishing a health insurance exchange".

Privatization follies

"Lawmakers on the Senate Rules Committee, after a contentious three-hour hearing Monday, supported the two bills -- SB 2036 and SB 2038 -- aimed at privatizing some correctional facilities and outlining how such efforts for other state agencies could be handled in the future."

Before a room packed with correctional employees opposed to the bills, senators on the committee back the effort, saying privatization will help the Legislature working to craft a budget that faces a $1.4 billion shortfall from the current year.

The private companies get the contract first. The details and the cost-benefit analysis and the public discourse comes later. Both the First Amendment Foundation and Florida Tax Watch, not always the best of friends, have both gone berserk over the notion of Florida selling off its assets in secret. Sen. Gwen Margolis of Miami dubbed it the “after the fact” bill. “Extremely disturbing,” she called two privatization bills, though she wasn’t sure that either could be derailed.

Best of all, for someone like me, eager to cash in on the privatization craze, the rules would apply to any agency — toll roads, state parks, state cops. Me, I’ve got my eye on the university system. Don’t think of them as students. Think of them as commodities.

"A thank-you note in the form of a high paying job"

"A panel of lawmakers voted Monday to crack down on perceived sweetheart deals that lawmakers get with public colleges and universities as a result of the legislative service. The Senate Ethics and Elections Subcommittee voted to forward legislation that would prohibit lawmakers from taking any job with a state college or university during their elected term and for two years after their legislative service. The idea is to stop lawmakers from tucking special projects or money into the state budget for their chosen institution in hopes of getting a thank-you note in the form of a high paying job." "Ethics bill would end special deals for lawmakers". See also: "Ban on University Employees as Legislators Squeaks through First Committee".

Arenas with accommodations for homeless people?

"SB 816 would take back state money given to sports teams to build arenas if the facilities don't include accommodations for homeless people or the teams don't contract for a nearby shelter. An amendment also would fine teams $125,000 each time they black out local TV access for games that are not sold out." "Sen. Bennett calls foul on sports teams' homeless shelter violations". See also "Florida legislation would force taxpayer-funded arenas to operate as shelters or make refunds".

All abortion, all the time

"Capitol Buzz: Lawmakers to debate abortion". More: "Three abortion bills to be taken up in state Legislature".

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Sunday [(yesterday)] evening, finds Gingrich earning 41% of the vote with Romney in second at 32%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum runs third with 11%, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul attracts support from eight percent (8%). Nine percent (9%) remain undecided.

According to the Insider Advantage poll, Gingrich has 34 percent support, Romney has 26 percent, Texas Rep. Ron Paul has 13 percent, and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum garners 11 percent. ...

Insider Advantage surveyed 557 likely voters on Jan. 22. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

"Florida is crucial"

Adam Smith writes that "Florida is crucial. Mitt Romney could afford to lose South Carolina, where early on he looked like an underdog anyway. But Florida is his fire wall, buttressed by a strong campaign organization, a flush campaign account and a large network of supporters built over more than five years running for president. Losing here would snuff what’s left of his aura of inevitability after winning only one of three early contests."

But,

[r]egardless of what happens in Florida, it looks increasingly likely we won’t know the nominee for some time. After Florida, February is a relatively quite month mainly featuring a handful of contests where delegates won’t be officially binding for the nomination. March 6 is Super Tuesday, where 10 states vote and candidates could well divide up the delegates relatively evenly. It takes 1,144 delegates to win the nomination and right now no one is well positioned to reach that threshold any time soon.

Florida GOP primary tracker

"Florida presidential primary tracker - Day 2".

Proposed bill would remove big tobacco tax loophole

"State Sen. Thad Altman, R-Melbourne, has introduced a bill this session that he says would remove 'a big tax loophole' for one Florida-based tobacco company."

Altman’s legislation is one of the rare moments when Big Tobacco and health advocates have come together on an issue. When this bill came up last year, a coalition of groups called the Citizens for Fairness in Florida stood behind the bill. Included in the coalition were Florida CHAIN, a statewide health advocacy group, and retailers.

The coalition was made possible because the money from tobacco companies has paid billions through the years to the Lawton Chiles Endowment Fund. By law (.pdf), the state uses "tobacco settlement moneys to ensure the financial security of vital health and human services programs in the state." Because more money could be going to health services, health advocates have stood by the attempts to levy the tax on Dosal.

Big Tobacco has also been a big proponent of legislation like Altman’s, because they argue companies like Dosal have an unfair advantage in the marketplace. Altman says the company has gained a huge advantage from the current "loophole," including an 18 percent market share, because they are able to sell cheaper cigarettes.

When the bill has come up in the past, Dosal has cried foul.

Teamster muscle

"Teamsters prepare to show muscle -- or lack thereof -- in prison privatization hearings".

"And the gap is growing"

"The net worth of the people representing Floridians in Congress is much higher than that of the average voter, and the gap is growing."

The disparity in Florida echoes a nationwide trend. According to an analysis by the nonprofit, nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics, 67 of 100 U.S. senators have a net worth of more than $1 million, based on financial foreclosure forms they filed. The average is $2.6 million, not counting home equity.

Monday reads

"Monday Morning Reads: Prisons, casinos and lawmaker conflicts". See also "Today in Tallahassee: Secret privatization, presidential politics, and university gigs" and "Capitol Buzz for Monday, 1/23".

Online outlier

"Spending $2,159 Less Per Student, Online School Outscores Florida Campuses on AP Exams".

Obamanomics

"Florida Home Sales Up in 2011, State Realtors Report".

Scott’s school ranking list

"Capitol Buzz: Gov. Rick Scott’s school ranking list will be the subject of much debate".

That’s what Florida — and then Nevada, Michigan, Arizona and perhaps other states on the calendar — will tell us. But there is no doubt that the defeat here on Saturday represents a setback to Romney, who now has won just one of three opening contests in the GOP race after it looked like he was positioned to start the year 3-0 (though he still has two second-place finishes and thus the best overall record of the field). Strong debate performances by the former House speaker and a week of missteps and stumbles by the former Massachusetts governor brought the race to this moment.

Mitt Romney is no longer coasting to the nomination, and Florida — a much different contest than Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — should determine whether Romney's campaign suffered a temporary setback or is in deep trouble.

Romney is favored to win the Jan. 31 primary, with the average of recent polls showing him ahead by more than 18 percentage points. He has much of the state GOP establishment, especially top fundraisers, behind him. He has by far the strongest campaign organization in the state. He and his allies already have spent more than $7 million on TV ads, including more than $4 million attacking Newt Gingrich, and have plenty more money to spend on TV. He should have a big early lead in the nearly 200,000 votes already cast in Florida — most while all the momentum was on Romney's side.

Losing Florida could be devastating to Romney, given the advantages he has. And it definitely could happen.

Romney flip-flops on Florida debate

"Romney says he'll attend debates in Florida".

"Slow start to early voting"

"As Republican presidential hopefuls made their final frenzied push in South Carolina on Saturday, early voting began across much of Tampa Bay and Florida at a much slower pace." "Slow start to early voting in Tampa Bay area".

Sad

"At Eola rally, Herman Cain calls for conservative 'revolution'".

"The most important single voting bloc in the Republican Party"

Anthony Man: "Conservative Christians, often called values voters, may be the most important single voting bloc in the Republican Party. 'It’s a massive component,' said Karin Hoffman of Lighthouse Point, founder of the tea party group D.C. Works for Us."

Peter Brown, associate director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said they make up about one-third of the Florida Republican primary voters. They easily have enough to sway the outcome of a primary contest, said Kevin Hill, a political scientist at Florida International University. And in a tight general election, they could determine the statewide winner in Florida, said Thomas McClusky, senior vice president of the Family Research Council’s political arm FRCAction.

Gaetz and Weatherford run the place

"They're a generation apart and not widely known outside the corridors of the Capitol. But Sen. Don Gaetz and Rep. Will Weatherford share a tight grip on the political future of Florida." "Powerful duo in state Capitol wary of dangers".

Voter suppression in the spotlight

"Florida's new election law, which critics say is a thinly disguised Republican effort to suppress likely Democratic voters, will be the focus of a U.S. Senate committee meeting next week in Tampa. Sen. Dick Durbin, an Illinois Democrat, is bringing the Senate Judiciary Committee's Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil Rights and Human Rights here Friday for a 1 p.m. hearing at the George E. Edgecomb Courthouse. The committee will take public testimony from interested groups, though witness lists have not been released." "U.S. Senate committee to hold hearing in Tampa on voting law".

Uppity firefighters

Randy Schultz dances to the Chamber of Commerce tune.

Martinez, Scott and other political gems

The Tampa Tribune editorial board: "Martinez's example".

"It invites mischief" ... if not outright corruption

The Tampa Tribune editors: "Senate Bill 7170 would keep secret any information about outsourcing a government function until after the contract has been approved. In other words, the public would not know what was going on until it was already done."

The measure stems from a court ruling last year against the Legislature's privatization of 29 prisons. It was included in the overall budget; the state courts ruled the privatization should have been in a separate bill.

[The right-wing Trib editors] believe the lawmakers had a point when they contested the judge's ruling that a change projected to save the Department of Corrections $22 million was not "rationally related" to the overall budget. ...

But regardless of the details of that case, this proposal would allow lawmakers to outsource work to private companies without proper scrutiny. It invites mischief.

Stop the privatization madness

Even the Tampa Tribune editorial board sees it: "The Florida Legislature is seeking to give thousands of acres of public lands to private landowners, threatening citizens' shoreline access and jeopardizing safeguards for rivers and lakes."

Floridians should be alarmed.

At risk is the shoreline that is under water part of the year. Conserving the shore guards against flooding and allows vegetation to filter pollutants.

If privatized by lawmakers, the shoreline now owned by all Floridians could be fenced off, mined, logged and possibly developed.

Medicaid deform

Lloyd Dunkelberger: "Scott’s controversial plan to cut $1.9 billion in Medicaid payments to Florida hospitals may not win backing in the Legislature this year." "Legislature may not pass Scott's Medicaid budget".

"Stacking districts to keep themselves and their buddies elected"

Scott Maxwell writes that "Florida legislators have responded to the voter mandate for compact, sensible districts with two simple words:"

Forget you.

(Around the newsroom, I used two other words — one of which was still "you." But this is a family newspaper.)

The politicians have continued gerrymandering districts just the way they wanted: stacking districts to keep themselves and their buddies elected and denying the voters true choice.

"Jeb!" goes to ground

"Jeb Bush Refrains From Endorsing Anyone".

10 questions

The Tampa Bay Times editors have "10 questions the Republicans should be prepared to answer". "For GOP candidates, 10 questions from Florida".

"Given past scandal ..."

"Amid a clamor to overhaul a state university system lawmakers say isn't cutting it, Sen. John Thrasher wants to ban lawmakers from holding jobs with public colleges and universities they fund."

Given past scandal, Thrasher said it's best to eliminate the "conflict of interest."

But Thrasher is the same lawmaker who, as House speaker in 2000, helped secure a new medical school at Florida State University that higher education officials resisted. Then he helped eliminate the state board that opposed it.

In a speech opening the legislative session, House Speaker Dean Cannon said Florida's public university system is "racing toward the middle," a hodgepodge of schools with no clear mission and overlapping agendas.

And he put part of the blame on lawmakers.

"Florida's jobs numbers are just estimates"

"Scott - who has billed himself as Florida's jobs governor - says repeatedly that he receives a new grade every month when Florida's unemployment rates are released. But maybe the grade Scott should get in his first year in office is an incomplete. Since Scott was sworn in the state's jobless rate has dropped from 12 percent in December 2010 to 9.9 percent in December 2011."

Yet those unemployment rates are based on a monthly survey that state and federal officials acknowledge is likely to change. And sometimes the revised numbers are much different than the ones that receive a lot of initial attention - sometimes by as much as a percentage point, which equals about 90,000 workers.

It's not a secret that the numbers are refined as more information becomes available, including unemployment compensation records.

"A significant step in the right direction"

The Tampa Bay Times editorial board: "Citizens' revised policies to consider appraisals and contractors' estimates for replacement costs make sense. It won't solve the property insurance crisis in Florida or prevent premium increases for other reasons, but it's a significant step in the right direction." "An about-face for Citizens".

"State fund that pays for school construction is broke"

"An unfinished university science lab. Leaky roofs in elementary schools. Plans for a new classroom put back on the shelf."

On campuses across Florida, these and other projects are stalled because the state fund that pays for school construction is broke. And it looks like there won't be any money for the next two years.

Blame all those people who gave up their land lines and bought energy efficient appliances. The fund known as PECO, used by schools exclusively for new buildings and maintenance, gets its money from a tax on telephones and electricity.