Florida could have another favorite son in 2016 in the shape of Rubio. In most of the early polls, Rubio is doing better among potential Republican primary voters than Bush is. As large a state as Florida is, it might not be large enough to support two presidential candidates. Jeb Bush could study his family’s history to see how this could work. When he first sought the presidency in 1980, George H. W. Bush was hurt by the candidacy of fellow Texan John Connally.

Political geography could also hurt Jeb Bush’s chances in 2016. . . .

In recent years, social conservatives in Iowa upended favorite candidates in the Republican caucuses. Mike Huckabee scored a major upset by beating out Mitt Romney in 2008‘s caucus. Four years later, Rick Santorum, who had placed fourth in the Iowa straw poll a few months earlier, came out of nowhere to upset Romney in the Iowa caucus. If he wants to run in 2016, Jeb Bush needs to keep an eye on Iowa in 2014 and see which way the winds are blowing as Republicans prepare to see who they will nominate to run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Tom Harkin.

After Iowa comes New Hampshire. While New Hampshire rallied behind George H.W. Bush in 1988, the incumbent president got a scare from Pat Buchanan in 1992‘s primary. Independents can vote in the New Hampshire primary which helped John McCain upset George W. Bush in 2000. Independents are still a factor in New Hampshire. While his presidential bid flopped badly across the nation, Jon Huntsman scored with New Hampshire independents. While only 10 percent of registered Republicans backed Huntsman in the 2012 primary, he still won third place with 17 percent.

If New Hampshire independents are still down on his brother in 2016 and high on a moderate Republican (Chris Christie, for example), Jeb Bush could well pay the price. South Carolina helped George H.W. Bush secure the GOP’s nomination in 1988 and did the same thing for George W. Bush in 2000. But, with the rise of the tea party, South Carolina Republicans are getting more conservative. . . .

If Jeb Bush wants to be president in 2016, he will have to start early to overcome his brother’s legacy and the unfavorable political map.

Race to the bottom

"A House committee Friday approved an overhaul of the Florida Retirement System, despite opposition from public worker unions and less-than-resounding support from a financial analyst advising Republican leaders."

The FRS is considered 87 percent funded, with most analysts acknowledging that 80 percent is the benchmark for a fund considered to be on solid financial footing.

Republican leaders, however, say that unfunded actuarial liability is $19.2 billion — a level they say is alarming. Still, those defending the fund say the shortfall exists only if every pensioner demanded their full payments at once, which analysts say would never happen.

Big of them

"The Florida Chamber of Commerce said it's willing to endorse Medicaid expansion, as long as the Legislature plays by its rules." "Florida Chamber endorses Medicaid expansion — with caveats". Meanwhile, "Senators to discuss Medicaid expansion Monday". More "Rep. Cruz hoping Legislature reverses course on Medicaid".

Another Scott flip-flop

"Gov. Rick Scott made a stop in Orlando Friday afternoon to promote his proposed $36 million hike in funding for residents with severe disabilities — a move embraced by families whose loved ones have spent years on a state waiting list for services."

For Scott, the scene was a dramatic contrast to April 2011, when the governor ordered steep cuts to the state Agency for Persons with Disabilities to halt its mushrooming deficit. The move was so widely vilified that, two weeks later, Scott announced he had negotiated a deal with lawmakers to reverse some of the cuts.

"Political firestorm"

"The appointment of a new judge to the 4th District Court of Appeal has sparked a political firestorm that reaches all the way to the Florida Supreme Court."

Hours after Gov. Rick Scott on Thursday appointed Alan O. Forst to the West Palm Beach-based appellate court, a group formed to keep politics out of the judicial system blasted the Palm City labor lawyer as unqualified. Further, the group Democracy at Stake questioned whether Forst’s conservative credentials, rather than his legal acumen, spurred the Republican governor to hand him the powerful post.

By Friday, however, the focus had turned from Forst, chairman of the quasi-judicial Reemployment Assistance Appeals Commission, to Florida Supreme Court Justices Barbara Pariente and Peggy Quince.

After surviving the most vicious and costly merit retention elections in state history, both gave leftover campaign cash to the group that is criticizing Forst’s appointment. Quince in December gave Democracy at Stake $5,922, according to campaign finance reports. Pariente, who once practiced in West Palm Beach and still lives here, gave it $23,000.

Jesse Phillips, president of Restore Justice, a tea party-linked group that worked to defeat the two justices and their colleague R. Fred Lewis in November, said Democracy at Stake is well within its right to criticize Forst’s appointment. But he questioned whether two Supreme Court justices should be funding its activity.

Pariente said she was not aware Sandy D’Alemberte, a former state legislator, law school dean and one of the state’s most prominent attorneys, had issued a press release on behalf of Democracy at Stake criticizing Forst’s selection. Forst will replace her husband, Fred Hazouri, who is retiring.

Too much Coley

"Coley named to committees in Ford's absence".

Publix rebuffs farmworkers

"The marchers will pass through Sarasota today as they trek to the corporate headquarters of Florida’s largest grocery chain. The Coalition of Immokalee Workers has been pushing Publix to join other companies like McDonald’s, Trader Joe’s and Whole Foods, which buy tomatoes from growers who follow the code of conduct." "Immokalee farmworkers group marks progress with march".

Weekly Roundup

"Weekly Roundup: Taking Care of Business".

Bushco lapdogs ignore trigger trouble

"A controversial 'parent trigger' plan to let parents take over failing schools is on the fast track, but Education Commissioner Tony Bennett cautioned lawmakers this week that the proposal gives the state too much power and creates too much red tape for parents. . . . Bennett wrote that the parent trigger option pushed by conservative think tanks, including former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s Foundation for Florida’s Future and Foundation for Education Excellence, the Heartland Institute and the American Legislative Exchange Council, or ALEC, has problems."

The day after Bennett sent his memo, a House committee approved the measure along party lines with representatives of Bush’s foundation speaking in favor.

Related: "Tim Tebow Act Underscores Trend in Partisan Divide over School Choice".

GOPers blind to absentee ballot fraud

The Tampa Bay Times editors: "In hindsight, Gov. Rick Scott's flawed attempt to purge Florida's voter rolls of noncitizens last fall almost appears quaint."

The real threat to the integrity of elections is in absentee ballots. Exhibit A: South Florida, where hackers in three primary elections requested absentee ballots for 2,552 voters. Elections officials blocked the scammers, the ballots were not sent and prosecutors are investigating. But it is a cautionary tale that has so far been largely unaddressed in Tallahassee. The House elections bill passed last week makes it easier for voters to cure mistakes in submitting absentee ballots but is silent on curtailing absentee ballot fraud.

No absentee ballots were ever mailed, and it remains a mystery who was responsible. All the winners in the 2012 primary in the three races, one Democratic congressional primary and two Republican legislative primaries, won by large margins. But the sophistication — the hackers only targeted infrequent voters who had not requested an absentee ballot — suggests a tie to a candidate's campaign. Under state law only candidates, political committees and political parties have access to absentee ballot request information before the election.

The Miami-Dade hacking attempt only became public because of a grand jury investigation stemming from another absentee ballot scandal in Miami-Dade in which two so-called boleteros, or ballot brokers, were arrested before the primary and charged with voter fraud. There's mounting evidence that it's Florida's mail ballots — not its Election Day polls — that are most susceptible to fraud.

"Florida falling behind on open government"

The Tampa Bay Times editorial Board: "Florida is falling behind on open government. The state has strong laws that guarantee public access to government records and meetings, but it hasn't kept up with technological advances. Jeff Atwater, the state's chief financial officer, is commendably leading on the issue. But it's an uphill climb, with too many lawmakers indifferent or hostile to putting the state's $70 billion budget online in searchable form and pursuing other reforms. Today is the start of Sunshine Week, an annual event that highlights the importance of open government. It's a good time for Florida's leaders to renew the state's commitment in tangible ways." "Reboot law on open records".

The survey, conducted by Quinnipiac University, tested a variety of possible 2016 pairings with 1,944 registered voters and had a margin of error of +/-2.2 percent. Clinton lead Rubio by a 50-34 margin, including 60-24 among Latino voters. Rubio performed worse than Chris Christie overall, who trailed Clinton 45-37 nationally, and only slightly better with Latinos, where Christie was down 62-23.

"Jeb Bush isn't ready for the national stage"

Adam Smith writes that "maybe, after all the gushing about his policy chops, strong executive record and ability to broaden the appeal of conservative Republicans [by the obsequious media], Jeb Bush isn't ready for the national stage."

Certainly anyone watching the clumsy kickoff of his book tour this week — where he pushed the 2016 presidential door wide open — had to acknowledge that his political skills are a bit rusty six years after leaving Florida's Governor's Mansion. . . .

A series of national interviews this week made Bush look like a cross between Mitt Romney — flip-flopper — and Rick Perry — having to walk back what he wrote in his own book.

"Jeb Bush watchers had been amazed and scratching their heads last week when Jeb came forward and placed himself squarely on the right of the immigration reform debate, outlining a flat no to a so-called ‘path to citizenship’."

Was he cleverly outmaneuvering the likes of Marco Rubio? Was this an ingenius bid to stomp into the 2016 presidential race? None of it seemed to make sense since Bush is or was a pro-immigration reform guy from a pro-reform political dynasty.

By the end of this week though it was looking like he was just off his game or even more comically that his book had simply gone to press while being an immigration hardliner was still good politics.

Well, now he’s admitted that the most embarrassing explanation is actually the real one.

House's "scheme is a recipe for inconsistent access to the polls"

The Tampa Bay Times editors: "It was designed to be a symbolic gesture of significant proportions. On the first day of the 2013 session Tuesday, the Florida House overwhelmingly approved a mea culpa bill aimed at correcting the legislative-created dysfunction of the 2012 election. Despite its good intentions, the House legislation falls short of the cure-all Republican leaders claim — particularly when it comes to early voting. "

Florida's election issues in November can be tied directly to the 2011 Legislature. Dramatically shortened early voting opportunities combined with a ballot the Legislature crammed full of lengthy constitutional amendments led to extraordinary lines at the polls on Election Day. In parts of Miami-Dade County, some ballots weren't cast until after midnight. Then it took days for county elections officials to process the record number of absentee ballots that were cast.

House Republicans said all the right things this week about learning from the 2012 election. But actions speak louder than words

"Jeb!" laff riot

Jebbie is scrambling to explain his monumental flip-floppery: "Jeb Bush (R), who caused controversy this week when he came out against a pathway to citizenship despite previously supporting one, pointed out in his defense that he didn't anticipate others, such as Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), would make the switch in the opposite direction." "Jeb Bush : Marco Rubio 'Wasn't For' Path To Citizenship When Book Was Written".

Even the wingers at the Daily Caller are in a dither: "Jeb Bush continues to amaze and confuse. Not only is it weird that he flip-flopped on immigration himself, but now he’s spinning excuses — and seeking to undermine other Republicans, such as Sen. Marco Rubio."

Yaaawwwnnn

"Scott’s endorsement of a plan to expand Medicaid has many Republicans fuming, but not Republican-turned-Democrat Charlie Crist." "Charlie Crist backs Medicaid expansion".

Forst fuss

"In the wake of Gov. Rick Scott's appointment of Alan Forst to the Florida 4th District Court of Appeal, Sunshine State News has discovered that state Supreme Court Justices Barbara Pariente and Peggy Quince donated nearly $30,000 to the liberal activist group that opposed Forst's candidacy." "Justices Pariente, Quince Gave $30,000 to Liberal Group Opposing Conservative Colleagues". Background: "Rick Scott Foils Liberal Activists, Appoints Alan Forst to 4th District Court of Appeal".

The writer failed to mention that the so-called "liberal activist group" is headed by one Alex Villalobos, the former Republican majority leader of the Senate.

'Glades

"A bill that would shift some of the cost of cleaning up the Everglades from sugar and agricultural interests to Florida taxpayers and South Florida property owners is on the fast track in the Florida House." "House pushes bill to cap Everglades cleanup costs for agriculture". See also "Everglades Bill Gets Strong Bipartisan Support from House Committee".

More: "House committee rejects environmental opposition, votes to file Everglades bill". See also "Florida sugar growers win House vote on Everglades pollution payout".

"Health care workers rally"

"About 400 health care workers crowded the Florida Capitol on Thursday, singing, chanting — with even a few in costume — to urge legislative leaders to endorse the Medicaid expansion allowed under the federal Affordable Care Act." "Health care workers rally at Florida Capitol to expand Medicaid coverage".

"Five things to look for"

"Five things to look for in Friday’s Legislative session".

Bills can be amended "without leaving a fingerprint"

The Palm Beach Post editors: "The Florida Senate made a big show this week of passing an ethics reform bill that Senate President Don Gaetz, R-Niceville said is long overdue. He’s right, but missing is a requirement that legislators legislate in the sunshine."

As it stands, senators and representatives can amend bills without leaving a fingerprint. There’s no way to tell who is responsible, and thus no one to hold accountable.

Scott "hasn't followed through" on ethics

Steve Bousquet: "Long before the Legislature saw the need for new ethics laws, Gov. Rick Scott made a bold commitment to fight public corruption. But he hasn't followed through." "Rick Scott promised big ethics reform, but nothing has happened".

And the problem with FRS is what?

"A bill proposing major changes to the Florida Retirement System pension program will be brought up this morning before the House Appropriations Committee." "House committee takes up FRS pension revision bill".

Charter madness

"Charter Schools Post Higher Scores than Traditional Public Schools in Florida".

Scott and Weatherford "self-serving, and ultimately disgraceful"

Frank Cerabino: "Can we please have a moratorium on telling heart-melting family stories as a way to peddle your views on who should pay for the health care of Floridians?"

Yes, I’m talking to you, Gov. Rick Scott and Florida House Speaker Will Weatherford.

Both men dipped into their family histories this week to arrive at opposite conclusions about whether Florida should opt in to an expansion of Medicaid in the new national health care law.

I guess both performances were supposed to make the men seem more caring and compassionate. But they were mostly self-serving, and ultimately disgraceful.

"This is what passes for economic-development in our state"

Scott Maxwell: "Last year, Florida agreed to give up to $430,000 in incentives to a company that promised to bring 300 jobs to South Florida."

Last month, that same company filed for bankruptcy.

Oh, and as it turns out, the chairman of the company was a convicted cocaine trafficker. . . .

This, my friends, is what passes for economic-development in our state: hoping the convicted drug guy who lied on his incentives application left behind a team capable of bringing the company out of bankruptcy.

Welcome to Florida.

"Property insurance overhaul"

"Property insurance overhaul clears Senate panel".

The education experts are at it again

"Another year, another highly-charged debate over educational accountability. The same players are arranging themselves around the same board. The number on the bill has changed, but not much else, with Republicans and conservative groups pushing for reforms versus Democrats and liberal groups opting for status quo." "GOP Clears First Step in Push for School Fixes, Accountability". Related: "Controversial 'parent trigger' bill passes its first test in Legislature" and "House moves parent-trigger legislation".

Rick Scott and the "business lobbyists"

The Tampa Bay Times editorial board: "It is a common refrain among conservative politicians that government should be managed like a business. But sensible efforts by Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater to introduce greater accountability into the way the state negotiates more than $50 billion in private sector contracts and grants has run into difficulty with Gov. Rick Scott and business lobbyists." "Sharper eye needed on state contracts".

Weatherford, at 33 years old the state's second-youngest speaker in modern history, could not be off to a worse start. In an arrogant power play, a select House committee voted along party lines Monday to not even draft legislation to allow the Medicaid expansion. On the legislative session's opening day on Tuesday, Weatherford delivered a hard-edged speech laced with code words like "freedom" and "social experiment" as he ripped the federal government and Medicaid expansion.

Joe Henderson: "House Speaker Will Weatherford knows the stakes better than anyone, and he opposes expansion" of medicaid to provide health insurance to about 1 million Floridians.

Weatherford also tells the poignant story of how his family struggled with the illness that eventually took the life of his younger brother, Peter. The family didn't have health insurance at the time and would have collapsed under Peter's medical bills.

Weatherford said the family was saved from financial ruin by a "safety net" and stressed he believes in that. That net turned out to be the state-funded Medically Needy program. It is, according to the Florida Department of Children & Families website, a Medicaid program. You can look it up.

After the story blew up Wednesday, Weatherford had to issue a statement to clarify a rather delicate matter: Why would he fight against something that could help others the way his family was helped?

His answer was parsed.

More from John Romano: No facts, no logic, no reality in Will Weatherford's Medicaid stance

Meanwhile, "House Republicans searching for alternatives to Medicaid".

"Attack on courts"

The Orlando Sentinel editors: "Time for Fla. lawmakers to end attack on courts".

"Whatever Scott's motivation might be"

The Miami Herald editors: Whatever Scott's motivation might be, expanding Medicaid "is the appropriate course, despite House Speaker Will Weatherford’s strong opposition to expanding Medicaid.

Whatever his motivation might be, this is the appropriate course, despite House Speaker Will Weatherford’s strong opposition to expanding Medicaid.

Still left to do: fixing the voting mess that led to hours’ long lines during the 2012 elections. Nor did the governor mention protecting the environment or the Everglades, though his budget includes money for continuing to clean up Florida’s fabled River of Grass.

On Tuesday, Gov. Scott showed a kinder, gentler side but also took a practical approach to governance.

It’s a welcome change.

Embarrassing

"'Anti-Sharia' law resurfaces in Florida Legislature".

"Politics often makes strange bedfellows"

"Politics often makes strange bedfellows, as will be obvious once again in the state Capitol Thursday. Here are five things to watch". "5 things to watch Thursday in the Legislature".

Wingers in a dither

Eric Giunta: "A left-wing group founded last year to campaign for the retention of three Florida Supreme Court justices has teamed up with liberal editorializers to slam the qualifications of a conservative jurist being considered for a judgeship by Gov. Rick Scott." "Is Rick Scott Being Pressured to Appoint Activist Judges?"

Background: "Governor should not put Alan Forst on the 4th District Court of Appeal".

Baby-speaker to gut FRS

"House speaker calculates pension savings in billions".

'Glades

Nancy Smith: "Everglades Foundation's Bogus Stats Unworthy of Florida Audubon".

Why are the worst lawyers so expensive?

David Damron: "For taxpayers, the legal bills from Orange County's decision to keep a sick-time initiative off the fall ballot are just starting to arrive. Orange leaders have spent $70,500 so far on outside attorneys for a civil suit related to the ballot measure. Open-government experts say those costs could grow rapidly as the county's several legal wranglings grind on." "Sick-time legal fights could make taxpayers ill".

"Polite applause but not a standing ovation"

The Sarasota Herald Tribune editorial board: "An election bill approved Tuesday by Florida's House of Representatives deserves polite applause but not a standing ovation." "Repairing Florida's voting".

In his run up to the 2016 GOP presidential primary, Jebbie Bush is plainly re-establishing himself with the Republican base: "Distancing himself from his former-president brother and Sen. Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush appeared to reverse course Monday when he said undocumented immigrants should not be given a pathway to citizenship."

At different times during the presidential campaign, Bush made veiled critical references about Romney. Now, Romney backers say, Bush sounds as if he's adopting the same positions as Romney.

Meanwhile, "Jeb Bush tells CBS: I am not ruling out run for president". More: "Jeb Bush to run for president in 2016?"

"A powerful message"

Update: "Florida Senate Passes Most Comprehensive Ethics Reform in 30 Years". See also "Florida lawmakers vote for ethics and early voting changes". The Tampa Bay Times editors: "Without confidence in the integrity of elected officials, there can be no confidence in the public policies they embrace. The Senate is poised to send a powerful message today as it takes up ethics reform shortly after the opening of the legislative session." "Editorial: Ethics reform is job one".

"From before-noon coffees to evening soirees, lawmakers and lobbyists marked the eve of the 60-day session of the Florida Legislature Monday in private clubs and lobbying offices with a traditional social ritual: handing out millions of dollars in checks." "Will lawmakers pass campaign reform or just do a face lift?".

State of the state

"Scott sounds re-election themes as 2013 session opens". The Tampa Bay Times editors: "Rick Scott delivered his most upbeat State of the State speech yet Tuesday, reflecting Florida's economic rebound from the worst of the Great Recession. He praised everyone from teachers to university presidents to business leaders, avoiding confrontation and appealing to mainstream voters he will need to win re-election next year. But the governor was noticeably silent on most big issues and stuck to narrow budget priorities, passing up an opportunity to cast a broader vision for Florida's future." "Editorial: Scott plays nice and safe".

The Tampa Trib editorial board: "Tribune editorial: Gov. Scott's solid, but cautious, address". See also: "Scott: 'It's working'", "In State of the State, Scott says policies 'working'", "'It's working,' Gov. Rick Scott declares in upbeat State of the State address" and "Former Gov. Bob Graham attends State of State speech". More: "Transcript: Gov. Rick Scott's State of the State address".

"Scott to Charlie Crist: Gotcha"

"Fiscal State of the State? Rick Scott to Charlie Crist: Gotcha".

And so it begins

"Five things to look for in Wednesday’s Legislative session".

Bill Cotterell: "Capitol comes alive as session starts". See also "Lawmakers open session by advancing elections, ethics reforms". More: "Teacher raises, student safety, Bright Futures and more at stake in session".

What Scott says; what Scott means

Scott Maxwell: "Rick Scott: What he says; what it means".

"What will Charlie do?"

"The state of the 2014 Florida governor's race is boiling down to this: What will Charlie do?"

With the election still 20 months away, politicos took notice last week as Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam signaled he might be available to challenge fellow Republican Gov. Rick Scott and Democratic Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer declared he would not run.

But most potential challengers remain on hold, waiting to see what former Gov. Charlie Crist will decide. The Republican-turned-independent-turned Democrat is the presumed front runner among Democrats who are itching to take on Scott -- but not so eager to take on Crist. . . .

A recent survey by Washington-based Hamilton Campaigns showed Scott tied with Crist in a hypothetical matchup – and with a favorability rating of 44 percent, the highest since he took office in 2011.

"I think Scott is in ascendancy," [Democratic pollster Keith Frederick, owner of FrederickPolls] said.

With former Florida chief financial officer Alex Sink, whose husband died earlier this year, sounding very reluctant to seek a rematch of her close 2010 loss to Scott, the Democratic field beyond Crist are all virtual unknowns outside of their hometowns.

"Anybody else [besides Crist] requires an introduction," said Hamilton Campaigns president David Beattie.

And even among Democrats, Crist may have to overcome the image that Republicans have pushed since the moment he quit the GOP in the spring of 2010: that he's an opportunistic flip-flopper interested primarily in his own political future.

"What I'm hearing from the Panhandle down to South Florida is that people want a true Democrat." Rich said, "My record is an open book. I'm not going to be changing those positions."

There also is emerging regional tension between Democrats in South and Central Florida. The last three Democrats to run for governor all came from Tampa Bay, and all lost. Crist lives in St. Petersburg.

Some South Florida leaders privately say that their region's huge number of Democrats – and its rich base of campaign contributors -- might get far more excited by a local candidate. Besides Rich and Diaz, former state Sen. Dan Gelber of Miami Beach, U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Weston and Fort Lauderdale Mayor Jack Seiler are among the possibilities mentioned.

Others whose names come up: Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn; U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor of Tampa; Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown; and even former Orlando police chief Val Demings.

Arrogant power play by House Speaker Will Weatherford

Update: "Clock starts on Medicaid maneuvering". See also "‘Safety net’ of Weatherford’s anti-Medicaid expansion tale apparently hospital charity".

The Tampa Bay Times editorial board: "[A]lready House Republicans have drawn a partisan line against expanding Medicaid. A select committee voted along party lines Monday to not even bother writing legislation that would enable the expansion."

This was an arrogant power play by two Pasco County legislators, House Speaker Will Weatherford and committee chairman Richard Corcoran, who are not representing the best interests of their districts or their state on health care reform.

Related: "Legislator: Don Gaetz Wanted to Expand Medicaid, Will Weatherford Ruined It". See also "Fla House Speaker opposes Medicaid expansion. But his dad says Medicaid helped his family".

Nancy Smith: "Rick Scott: Why I Said 'Yes' to Medicaid Expansion". See also "Scott explains his support for Medicaid expansion".

AIF, Chamber Divided on Gambling

"AIF, Florida Chamber Divided on Casino Gambling, Taxes for Online Travel Companies, and Obamacare?".

Sequestration follies

Lloyd Brown: "The impact on Florida was described to Scott in a letter from, I think, the third assistant secretary to the undersecretary to the oversecretary of the deputy assistant to the secretary of defense. (You know how the manpower shortage is in D.C.)" "Florida in Grave Peril, State Leaders are Advised".

Charter madness

"It was clear to teachers at the Einstein Montessori School in Orlando that something was very wrong when school opened for business last fall."

There were no computers for student use. And although the school focused on students with dyslexia, there were no reading texts.

Teachers said there was no set curriculum and no library.

"It was a disaster," said Brittany Clifton, a first-year math teacher who took on additional duties as principal for several months. She said students weren't getting what they needed. "It should have been shut down before the end of the semester."

The charter school closed in February, two months after Orange County Public Schools warned the privately run public school that it was violating state law and its own contract with the district.

Later that year, the district closed Summit Charter School in Maitland, which served students with learning disabilities, after years of financial troubles, including administrators spending school money on lavish meals, travel and a truck, and employees working without compensation.

Then, in 2012, the academically lagging NorthStar High School gave its principal a payout of more than $500,000 after its charter was not renewed. In addition, she was being paid about $305,000 a year in salary and bonuses. The four schools, combined, have received more than $287.2 million in state tax money.

After an Orlando Sentinel investigation about NorthStar, state legislators expressed outrage, followed by a stack of bills related to charter schools, many increasing fiscal controls.

"I hope that we're going to make these kind of stories a thing of the past," said Simmons.

At Einstein, teachers said their training was haphazard, paychecks were late from the start and payments meant to compensate them for a lack of health insurance stopped after a single check. Three teachers who left in December and January were never paid several thousand dollars they were owed, they told Orange County Public Schools officials.

Things were also falling apart in the classroom.

The principal quit to save on salaries, and two of the five teachers were forced out, former teachers said. Further defections left a revolving door of substitute instructors, according to former teachers and the Einstein Montessori board chair, Rebecca Simmons.

Victoria Miranda, 14, said she had substitutes in all classes but one.

"They let us do what we wanted," she said.

Short-sighted scheme would essentially put an end to conservation programs

The Tampa Tribune editors: "A short-sighted measure in the Florida Legislature would essentially put an end to the state and local land conservation programs, making it impossible to preserve the natural treasures that are the foundation of the state's appeal. Credit Sen. Alan Hays of Umatilla and Rep. Charlie Stone of Ocala for this scheme." "Short-sighted land deal".

"Florida's unemployment rate is down to 8 percent, its lowest in four years. … The changes we are making to improve our state's business climate are helping Florida families pursue the American dream."

That's because part of the declining jobless rate is not a function of new hiring. It is tied instead to the fact that the share of Floridians in the labor market has been falling since the housing bubble burst.

The state's "labor-force participation rate" — the percentage of working-age Floridians in a job or looking for one — has slipped from 64.2 percent in 2007 to 61.1 percent in 2010 and 60.2 percent in December 2012. Florida's average labor-force participation rate for all of 2012 was 60.4 percent, the lowest annual level since 1985.

The declining rate is important because it artificially amplifies progress on unemployment. With fewer people in the labor pool, it is mathematically easier to drive down the jobless rate. In Florida's case, the impact is significant, said Rollins College economist William Seyfried.

The unemployment rate fell from a high of 11.4 percent in February 2010 to 8 percent in December 2012. But if the labor-force participation rate had remained constant, December's jobless rate would have been more than 2 percentage points higher, Seyfried said.

"If you want to explain why the unemployment rate declined from its peak," he said, "over two-thirds of the decline was due to the declining participation rate."

Florida Chief Economist Rebecca Rust disputed that conclusion, saying, "It's not possible to say" what the unemployment might be if the labor-force participation rate held steady. Rust said it was unrealistic to assume that everyone who'd left the work force would be unemployed if they'd kept looking for a job.

"Scott’s neck-snapping policy reversals"

"Republican Gov. Rick Scott’s neck-snapping policy reversals and decisions to back higher teacher pay and Medicaid expansion are complicating politics for both major parties as Florida’s annual legislative session begins this week."

Florida Republicans, who had rallied behind Scott despite his chronically lousy poll numbers, also are trying to grasp the governor’s lurch toward the political middle.

While GOP leaders accentuate the positive, Scott’s conservative base is livid, with many feeling betrayed. Scott frenemies will abound when state lawmakers gather Tuesday at the Capitol to open the two-month session.

“Hey, this just shows we’re not a monolithic party,” said Florida Republican Chairman Lenny Curry, whose party controls the House, Senate and governor’s office but who has been spending time tamping down internal divisions.

Already there’s talk that Scott might not be a lock for next year’s GOP nomination.

"Cagy lobbyists and conniving lawmakers"

The Tampa Trib editors: "It never pays to be optimistic about the Florida Legislature. You can count on a cagy lobbyist or conniving lawmaker to always be plotting some mischief — or worse." "Tampa Tribune editorial: Cause for optimism in Tallahassee".

Lawmakers set to increase contribution limits for statewide candidates

"Campaign finance bills filed in the Florida House and Senate for the legislative session that begins Tuesday signal that Florida lawmakers are poised to increase campaign-contribution limits for statewide candidates. Political consultants for candidates in both parties agree limits should rise, but by how much?" "Campaign Finance Reform Negotiations Still Have a Way to Go".

Pafford

"Rep. Pafford: From a U.S. Senator’s driver to Florida Dems’ policy driver".

"If you don’t like it, tough"

The Palm Beach Post editorial board: "Here is the message from Florida Atlantic University about the $6 million football stadium deal with prison company GEO Group: We’re keeping the money. If you don’t like it, tough." "FAU can’t talk its way past the GEO stadium controversy".

"Secret Democratic strategy memo"

Nancy Smith: "A secret Democratic strategy memo from the liberal George Soros-funded Blueprint North Carolina found its way into the public domain, revealing a premeditated attack plan designed to “eviscerate” Republicans in that state. Even more troubling is the much broader strategy it reveals, spilling out of North Carolina and into our own state."

According to the RPOF:

- The document specifically references an invitation to the "Florida minority leader" to travel to North Carolina to brief liberal activists on successes in Florida.

- Seeks to mimic media attacks launched by "Pink Slip Rick" Scott.

- Part of the document is a polling memo commissioned by Project New America, whose senior staff includes former Florida state Rep. Loranne Ausley, a Democrat who most recently lost the CFO’s race to Republican Jeff Atwater.

- America Votes claimed responsibility for authoring the Blueprint strategy document. Ausley's political committee, Project New Florida, collected $75,000 from America Votes.

- Project New Florida's treasurer is also the treasurer at Florida Watch Action, the group behind the “Pink Slip Rick” campaign.

"Consumer's guide to the Legislature"

"As lawmakers convene Tuesday to iron out Florida's budget during the 60-day legislative session, their decisions will have a major impact on the budgets of families across the Sunshine State." "A consumer's guide to the Florida Legislature". The Sarasota Herald Tribune editors: "Ethics reform first". Related: "Local lawmakers stake out positions", "Slideshow: Top 10 issues facing Fla. legislators", "School safety on table as legislative session starts Tuesday" and "Teacher raises, student safety, Bright Futures and more at stake in session".

"Republicans show signs they want to look ahead to the future"

"Even as a new poll from a firm with connections to prominent Democrats shows Republican Gov. Rick Scott in a dead heat with former Gov. Charlie Crist, who left the GOP to run for the U.S. Senate partyless in 2010 and joined the Democrats last year, Republicans show signs they want to look ahead to the future, whether Scott wins a second term in 2014 or not."

Rick Scott had a phenomenal rise to the top of Florida politics, the likes of which had not been seen in decades. Unlike then-Attorney General Bill McCollum, his rival for the Republican nomination in 2010, Scott did not spend years cultivating local and county GOP poobahs as he made the rounds of rubber chicken dinners. After emerging on the national scene to oppose President Barack Obama’s federal health-care law, Scott jumped into the gubernatorial primary and upset McCollum in a close and bitter contest -- leaving GOP leaders in Tallahassee, who by and large backed the attorney general, forced to play ball with the new Republican leader in the Sunshine State.

Medicaid Monday

"Gov. Rick Scott has said what he would do. So have the other three members of the Florida Cabinet. But it is the Legislature that will ultimately decide whether the state will expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. House and Senate committees studying the health care law could make their recommendations Monday." "Legislature could tip hand on Medicaid expansion Monday".

"Latest episode of Miami Ballot Vice"

The Miami Herald editors: "Miami-Dade elections officials and the office of State Attorney Katherine Fernandez Rundle have found an object worthy of praise — the computer. And with good reason. Had computers inside the elections office not detected a series of unusual requests for absentee ballots last July, August’s primary election could have been a nightmare."

The Miami-Dade elections department received more than 2,500 suspicious ballot requests within a 2 1/2 week period in July. It was clear that the system was being hacked. The computer responded as it should and flagged the requests, which were later rejected.

Now, the challenge is to identify who was behind this latest episode of Miami Ballot Vice. It’s a question that could have been answered months ago if the two agencies now heaping praise on a machine had done their jobs more effectively.

Absurd

Lauren Ritchie: "State Sen. Alan Hays' bill to keep public buses from stopping on streets is absurd".

The fire went from zero percent contained most of the day to 75 percent contained by the evening — but officials were expecting more dry, windy conditions Sunday.

"Benedict Arnold of the Florida tea party movement"

"Gov. Rick Scott came into office on a conservative wave, promising to change Tallahassee, fight President Barack Obama's health care overhaul and make Florida as business friendly as he could."

He shunned the press, announced his first budget at a tea party rally in a central Florida church and entered his first legislative session like the powerful CEO he was before spending more than $70 million of his own money to win office in 2010.

Scott has undergone a transformation. He's cozying up to teachers instead of antagonizing them, he's learned the art of compromise with the Legislature and he's even cooperating with the federal government to put the president's health care plan into place.

"He's really the Benedict Arnold of the tea party/patriot movement in Florida. Most conservatives feel betrayed by him and members have been calling me and saying they want him fired," said Everett Wilkinson of the South Florida Tea Party, who once called Scott a rock star. "He's flip-flopped on such major areas. It shows how a man can be corrupted with D.C. and Tallahassee."

"Annual quest to overturn the state's gift ban"

Scott Maxwell on "the Legislature's annual quest to overturn the state's gift ban." "Each spring, lawmakers resurrect freebies quest".

"Fears of another bubble"

"South Florida's once-moribund housing market has rallied, with bidding wars pitting investors against first-time buyers in a chaotic race for a limited supply of homes. But amid the frenzy comes a concern: Are prices rising too fast?" "Fast-rising home prices stir fears of another bubble".

"Problems are much deeper and the thinking much shallower"

Randy Schultz: "When it comes to the debate about homeowners insurance in Florida, it’s as if most telephones were connected to walls on lines and the web was something only spiders use. As the Florida Legislature prepares to convene Tuesday, it is more than 20 years since Hurricane Andrew leveled the property insurance system and any pretense that things ever would be normal. For all the financial turmoil of 2007 and 2008, you can see the Florida real estate market eventually sorting itself out. At this point, it’s hard to see the property insurance market similarly settling, because the problems are much deeper and the thinking much shallower." "Florida Legislature must show new thinking on property insurance".

Putnam's hypocritical attacks on Scott

Marc Caputo: "Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam criticized Gov. Rick Scott over expanding Medicaid, but Putnam may have a taste for big government himself."

Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam’s headline-grabbing criticism of fellow Republican Rick Scott over expanding Medicaid highlighted just how much the governor flip-flopped on government spending and entitlement programs.

But Putnam has a more extensive record of supporting expensive entitlements and big-government spending.

As a member of Congress from 2001-2011, Putnam voted for budget-busting legislation — including the massive Medicare prescription-drug entitlement program estimated to cost nearly $1 trillion over a decade. Putnam also stuffed the federal budget with hometown-spending and helped override vetoes by President Bush on what the White House called a “fiscally irresponsible” Medicare bill and a $300 billion farm bill.

Years later, Putnam called Scott’s call to expand Medicaid as irresponsible, costly and “naive.” . . .

The fallout between Scott and Putnam stoked speculation that Putnam might challenge Scott in a GOP primary next year. Putnam’s office downplayed the talk.

The GOP discord —as well as the tensions between each man’s rhetoric and record — is also emblematic of Obama-era Republican struggles. Many Republicans spent big under Bush then became deficit hawks under Obama. They railed against Obama policies, only to tacitly support some of them in the end.

'Glades

"Reviving stalled Everglades reservoir raises homes and cost questions".

"Runt of the South Florida litter"

"For the third largest county in the state, Palm Beach County is the runt of the South Florida litter. With an economy based on retirees and tourists, Palm Beach lost significant wealth with the housing bust, as did all of Florida. But without substantial international business and tourism to keep it afloat, as Miami had, or a major draw like the cruise ship industry in Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach has limped back from the recession." "Palm Beach County's economic recovery trails neighbors to the south".

Cutting down on wingnuttery?

"As legislators return to Tallahassee for their two-month-long annual session, beginning Tuesday, they will tackle some of the state’s most intractable problems, and they vow to do it with a new tone." "Florida lawmakers to angry voters: We hear you".

This is a bit hard to take: "Intent on wiping their chambers clean of the toxic atmosphere that has permeated politics in the state Capitol and beyond for more than two years, Senate President Don Gaetz and House Speaker Will Weatherford have made ethics, elections and campaign finance reform their top priorities for the 2013 legislative session that begins on Tuesday." "Young gun, old hand aim to clear legislative toxic air".

"Why look a gift horse in the mouth?"

The Miami Herald editors: "No one believes the tight-fisted Mr. Scott, who campaigned against 'bloated government,' has undergone a miraculous ideological conversion. The governor’s need to improve his dismal approval ratings dictated the change in course. But why look a gift horse in the mouth? If an upcoming election is what it takes for Mr. Scott to realize that government can improve people’s lives and that public employees are not the enemy, why complain?" "Time for Legislature to invest in Florida".

The Orlando Sentinel editorial board writes that "whether Florida can afford to spend at the level the governor has proposed and avoid further cuts comes down to the decisions lawmakers will reach on taxes: how much to collect, and how much to give away."

Business incentives: Florida has a terrible record of return on these investments. The Sentinel found hundreds of millions of dollars awarded to businesses betweeen 1995 and 2011 created fewer than half the promised jobs. Yet Scott wants $287 million for the state to throw at companies next year, a huge jump from this year's $111 million.

Lawmakers should hold off on any increase unless and until Scott can prove that taxpayers are getting their money's worth.

Tax giveaways: Sentinel reporting also has revealed that some tax breaks intended to create jobs are so poorly conceived that companies are cashing in for investments they would make anyway. Universal Orlando has claimed millions of dollars through a tax break intended for companies that create jobs in "high-crime areas." Other companies, like Publix Super Markets, have cut their tax bills for expanding in areas that are "perceived" to be polluted.

Some lawmakers have been talking about tightening such breaks. Time to follow through.

They're tripping at every step

"The effort to create fair student assessments is running so far behind that many educators and lawmakers are questioning whether school districts can pull it off before the state's merit-pay plan starts in the 2014-15 school year."

As part of Florida's teacher-merit-pay effort, a large part of a teacher's annual evaluation will be based on the progress students make on standardized tests such as end-of-course exams or the FCAT.

"Managed about as carefully as amateur night at your local strip joint"

Carl Hiaasen writes that "Rick Scott campaigned for governor on the promise of running Florida like a big business, but the one big business that Florida actually runs is out of control."

Citizens Property Insurance Corp. was created a decade ago, supposedly to help residents afford hurricane coverage for their homes. With 1.3 million policyholders, Citizens is the state’s largest insurer of property.

And it’s been managed about as carefully as amateur night at your local strip joint. In fact, that’s where one happy Citizens worker liked to use his company credit card.

PolitiFact heads to Tally

"When politicians start legislating in Tallahassee, PolitiFact Florida will be checking for the truth. We’ll be in the committee rooms and at the press conferences." "PolitiFact Florida to track Tallahassee lawmakers".

"Bleak picture envisioned by alarmed and disgusted tourism leaders"

"Airfares will go up. Lines at airports will extend 'out the door.' Foreign travelers will turn to other destinations outside this country. And irritated, price-conscious Americans will stay home or climb into their cars rather than fly to vacation spots like Florida."

That's the bleak picture envisioned by alarmed and disgusted tourism leaders, who predict that the federal budget cuts known as "sequestration" will dampen the summer vacation season and potentially damage Florida's leading industry.