It's now been almost 6 months since we started doing regular polling of the 2016 race. The only candidate who's shown any real momentum over that period of time is Paul, whose support has doubled from 7% to 14%. Rubio's shift from 18% to 16%, Bush's from 12% to 15%, and Christie's from 14 to 15% are all within the margin of error. It is worth noting though that this is the first time Rubio hasn't held at least a 4 point lead over the other Republican contenders.

Hillary Clinton leads with 63% to 13% for Joe Biden, 4% for Andrew Cuomo, 3% for Mark Warner and Elizabeth Warren, 2% for Martin O'Malley, and 1% each for Kirsten Gillibrand, Deval Patrick, and Brian Schweitzer. Clinton led Biden 61-12 when we started polling on this in December. Clinton has at least 58% support with liberals, moderates, men, women, whites, African Americans, Hispanics, young voters, and seniors- in other words every key segment of the Democratic electorate.

What's poor Ricky to do?

"Gov. Rick Scott must soon sign the new state budget, and he's getting intense feedback on all sides: from lawmakers protecting hometown projects, hospitals worried about losing money and a business-backed group criticizing pork-barrel spending." "Gov. Rick Scott holds power with budget veto pen". Related: "TaxWatch "turkeys" draw fire", "Water projects left off Florida TaxWatch's "turkey" list this year" and "Turkey Day: Florida TaxWatch Gives Legislature's Budget Mixed Reviews".

Teabaggers and other assorted wingnuts in a dither

"Local tea party groups say they were targeted by IRS". See also "Meet Florida Conservatives Targeted by Obama's IRS".

What a deal!

"Besides being a state with no personal income tax, one of the lowest corporate tax rates in the country, and a huge tourism and car rental market, Scott and Lee County officials greased the slide with about $85 million in taxpayer incentives. At face value that exceeds the company’s own investment in the move, leaving questions about whether the amount was necessary. In exchange for the public incentives, Hertz will deliver 700 jobs and spend $60 million toward construction of a new building." "Closer Look at Hertz's Golden Deal in the Sunshine State".

Ethics complaints kept under wraps

"Public records exemption complements the sweeping package he signed May 1. It will keep initial complaints to the Ethics Commission under wraps until a determination has been made on their validity." "Gov. Scott signs 2nd ethics law".

Bought and paid for

"The top Five lobbying firms collected more than $1 million from clients during the first three months of this year. Wednesday was the deadline for firms to file reports with the state. More than 100 lobbying firms say they earned more than $500,000 each in the first quarter representing clients before state government." "Lobbying firms cashed in on the session".

Amazon's Florida flop

"Fla. gov. rejects Amazon deal". See also "Amazon Effort to Build in Florida Crumbles".

"A small step forward"

The Tampa Bay Times editors: "For springs restoration, a small step forward".

What's wrong with Hillsborough?

The Tampa Bay Times editorial board: "The same four Hillsborough County commissioners who shot down domestic partner rights teamed up again Wednesday to reinforce the county's reputation for bigotry. It was a cowardly and self-serving move that is wrong for the times and a wrong read of politics." "Vote reinforces reputation for bigotry".

West won't go away

"Allen West's Gig at FOX News Will Keep Him Politically Alive". See also "Allen West lands job on Fox News".

Castor Dentel draws local hack

"With the 2013 legislative session wrapping up earlier in the month, Republicans are pushing ahead to find a candidate who can defeat freshman Rep. Karen Castor Dentel, D-Maitland, next year -- and it appears they've found their man."

With the 2013 legislative session wrapping up earlier in the month, Republicans are pushing ahead to find a candidate who can defeat freshman Rep. Karen Castor Dentel, D-Maitland, next year -- and it appears they've found their man.

On Wednesday Longwood City Commissioner Bob Cortes, who filed to run in January, is staging the kickoff in his bid for the Republican nomination to challenge Dentel in 2014. Cortes has the support of much of the Republican leadership -- including House Majority Leader Steve Precourt, R-Orlando, and Seminole County Sheriff Don Eslinger. Other Republican members of the Florida House from the area -- including Rep. Jason Brodeur, R-Sanford, Rep. David Santiago, R-Deltona, Rep. John Tobia, R-Melbourne Beach, and Rep. Ritch Workman, R-Melbourne -- are also backing Cortes.

Rubio rakes in the dollars

"Rubio's financial disclosure shows $800,000 book advance".

Weatherford declares bill "extremely constitutional"

"After Gov. Rick Scott's highly prioritized manufacturing tax cut passed the Florida Legislature without receiving a two-thirds majority of votes, legislative staff analysts have had a change of heart and now believe such a supermajority was not necessary." "State analysts reverse course, say supermajority wasn't needed on tax cut vote".

"Job creators" whine

"Florida Job Creators Give State Mediocre Grade for Small-Business Friendliness".

Yet at the same time, Nelson won't flat-out rule out the possibility that he could be talked into leaving his third term in the U.S. Senate if the Florida Democratic Party really, really, really wants him to run for governor. And he repeated that stance Tuesday during an appearance in Orlando.

But if the party should conclude he's their best hope of beating Scott?

"I don't know the answer to your question," Nelson said.

"Included in the fine print"

"A three-judge panel questioned Tuesday why it should wade into a battle over the possible privatization of prison health-care services, with the budget at issue in the change set to expire in several weeks. The 1st District Court of Appeal judges listened to arguments on a ruling in December that prevented the Department of Corrections from contracting out the health services in all but the bottom third of the state. The contract for that part of the state was included in the fine print of the budget for the spending year that ends June 30." "Department of Corrections Delves Into Prison Health Privatization".

On the road again

"After 'victory' lap around state, Scott to travel to Chile".

HD 74

"With state Rep. Doug Holder, R-Venice, facing term limits next year, Dr. Julio Gonzalez, an orthopedic surgeon from Venice, is off to an impressive head start as he looks to represent parts of Sarasota County." "Republican Hopeful Julio Gonzalez Has Good Head Start to Replace Doug Holder".

"Floridians shouldn't so easily dismiss the hypocrisy"

The Tampa Bay Times editors: "Republican state lawmakers on Tuesday didn't want to talk about 1 million of the state's poor who don't have health insurance."

Or about how Floridians and their health care system inevitably absorb the cost when the uninsured are in crisis. They tried to change the subject when asked at a Suncoast Tiger Bay meeting in St. Petersburg about news reports that juxtaposed Republican House members' generous taxpayer-covered health insurance with their votes to reject federal Medicaid expansion dollars to cover 1 million uninsured — and pump $51 billion into the state economy. Floridians shouldn't so easily dismiss the hypocrisy.

"Cowards and simpletons"

Scott Maxwell: "Part of the reason is that we elect cowards and simpletons — politicians unwilling to stand up to extremists and not smart enough to think for themselves."

But another part of the reason for extremism taking root is the media. We are like gasoline to the fringy flames of foolishness. We give legitimacy to nonsense, giving equal weight to both the mainstream and the extreme.

Laff riot

"Tallahassee needs to be nicer to Republicans, county leader says".

West again

"Mention of Allen West for lieutenant governor launches Dem fundraising appeal".

Good luck with that

The Palm Beach Post editors: "Editorial: Scott should sign bill to keep guns from Florida’s mentally ill".

"What's not to like?"

Nancy Smith: "Want a blatant example of fuzzy math? It's right here with ringing clarity in the outlandish proposed constitutional amendment known as Florida's Land and Legacy."

The Florida Water and Land Conservation Amendment (that's its real name) would embed in the Florida Constitution for 20 years 33 percent of net revenues from the existing excise tax on documents.

But, hey, no sweat. Eric Draper, executive director of Florida Audubon, promises the people of Florida the amendment will dedicate only 1 percent of the state budget to buying conservation land, no programs will get cut as a result, no one will get hurt, it's all tax free. And, oh yes, all it does is replace the minimum $300 million a year the Florida Forever program provided from 1990 through 2008. What's not to like?

Wingnuts in a dither

"Several Florida activists claim they or their organizations are victims of the IRS' gone-wild, anti-conservative harassment campaign -- citing everything from individual audits to being burdened with probing, invasive questionnaires and being forced to disclose political beliefs, even seeing unpublished web pages unearthed." "Meet Florida Conservatives Targeted by Obama's IRS".

Another dead construction worker

"A worker is dead following a seven-story fall at a South Florida construction site." "Worker dies after 7-story fall".

Hialeah ballot broker

"After having learned that his name appears next to the amount of $1,500 in a notebook kept by an alleged Hialeah ballot broker, lawyer Ricardo Corona said Tuesday that he never hired anyone to collect absentee ballots on his behalf during his unsuccessful campaign for a Miami-Dade judgeship in 2008." "Defeated candidate Ricardo Corona says he never hired ‘boletera’ Deisy Cabrera".

"It is clear the IRS cannot operate with even a shred of the American people’s confidence under the current leadership," Rubio wrote in a letter to Treasury Secretary Jack Lew. "Therefore, I strongly urge that you and President Obama demand the IRS Commissioner’s resignation, effectively [sic] immediately.

Perhaps more indicative of Rubio's incompetence is that,

The IRS commissioner during the probe [Rubio is complaining about] was Donald Shulman, a holdover from the Bush administration. He left his job last November. There’s an acting commissioner right now, but he assumed his acting role well after the Cincinnati probe ended. The position of IRS commissioner is vacant, which may explain why Rubio’s letter calls for “the IRS Commissioner’s resignation” but doesn’t name whom Rubio wants to resign. Does he want the acting commissioner to resign? The old commissioner to re-resign? Appoint a new commissioner and then force that person to immediately resign?

Meanwhile, "Rubio wants to criminalize IRS targeting of conservatives".

Cuts in pay for uninsured

"Money meant to offset costs for hospitals to provide care to the uninsured will be sliced as part of the Affordable Care Act, which anticipated more people would get insurance." "Jackson and other hospitals may face cuts in pay for uninsured, under healthcare reform".

The best the GOP can do?

"Paul and Rubio emerging as two of the leading Republican presidential hopefuls in 2016, [and] they could well split Iowa and New Hampshire. In the meantime, the two Republican senators are starting their pathways to the Republican nomination by trying to focus on different parts of the political map." "While Rand Paul Mines Iowa, Marco Rubio Looks to New Hampshire for 2016".

Virtual madness

"Private online learning companies will get a better shot at Florida public school funding under a bill that won approval on the final day of the legislative session." "Bill opens up funding for private virtual schools".

"Scott declares victory"

"The tax break won't take effect until next April and will expire in three years unless lawmakers renew it. It also could be subject to a constitutional challenge because it will reduce revenue to cities and counties by as much as $30 million a year. Scott ignored that context Monday and focused on the jobs he says the tax break will bring." "Rick Scott declares victory on sales tax break for manufacturers". See also "Scott touts business tax repeal".

'Ya got a problem with that?

Fred Grimm: "Florida lawmakers pay Boondoggle? Hey, it’s for the kidspeanuts for health insurance".

Unemployment benefits slashed

"Florida will soon slash four weeks of unemployment benefits to laid-off workers nearing the end of their eligibility. The reduction is happening because of the so-called sequestration, the automatic federal budget cuts that began in March." "Federal budget woes force 4-week cut in jobless benefits".

Talkin' immigration

"Congressional Democrats talk immigration in North Miami".

His poll numbers are stubbornly bleak — only one in three voters say he deserves a second term — and despite plenty of coaching, he still displays the natural charm and warmth of an automaton.

So far, public polls suggest, voters are giving Scott little credit for the improving jobs picture in Florida. Democrats see a prime opportunity to take back the Governor’s Mansion, and plenty of Republicans outside Scott’s inner circle agree. “This is the same chattering class that had Bill McCollum and then Alex Sink measuring drapes for the Governor’s Mansion. They both learned the hard way about underestimating Rick Scott, but apparently the Tallahassee establishment just never learns its lesson,” said Tony Fabrizio, Scott’s chief political adviser. “We look forward to a campaign against either of the Tallahassee establishment favorites — Crist or Sink — as their dismal record of high unemployment, sinking home prices and a collapsing economy while leading the state will serve as a sharp contrast to the dramatic turnaround the state has undergone under Gov. Scott.” . . .

The top strategist again will be Fabrizio, a blunt, cigar-smoking Brooklyn native Bob Woodward once dubbed “an attack specialist” for his work on the Bob Dole campaign. Fabrizio, now residing in Fort Lauderdale, is the pollster and big picture strategist who has continued advising Scott throughout his first three years as governor.

Negron picks up a challenger

"Brandon Michael Cannon, 26, owner of a now-shuttered Port St. Lucie senior arcade, has filed to run against state Sen. Joe Negron of Palm City in the 2014 Republican primary. Cannon told Sunshine State News he is well aware that if his grassroots campaign should pull off an upset next year, he would be interrupting Negron's ambitions. Negron is scheduled to become president of the Florida Senate in 2016." "Arcade Owner Brandon Michael Cannon Files to Challenge Sen. Joe Negron".

Water wars

"The water dispute between Alabama, Florida and Georgia is provoking hardball politics in Congress, where Georgia lawmakers derailed a proposal that could restrict metro Atlanta’s water supply." "Tri-state water feud plays out in Congress".

The best he can do

"Lenny Curry, chairman of the Republican Party of Florida (RPOF), believes there are lessons in Mark Sanford’s victory in a special congressional election held in South Carolina on Tuesday -- namely, that voters around the nation don’t want to support Democratic candidates who will end up supporting Nancy Pelosi for speaker of the House." "Lenny Curry: 'Nancy Pelosi Poison' Strategy Worked in South Carolina, It Can Work in Florida".

5 things to know

"5 things to know in Florida for May 13".

Funny how that works

"Budget Packs Millions in Legislative Leaders' Districts".

"A case study in the worst of political gaffes"

Marc Caputo: "The biggest mistakes in politics are often unforced errors that reinforce an opponent’s stereotypes."

By that standard, the Heritage Foundation’s immigration report last week was a case study in the worst of political gaffes.

This unsupported remark by Caputo is curious: "It’s true that some liberals and Democrats want to scuttle immigration reform for political gain. Many would prefer the current situation, in which Hispanic voters continue to tilt Democrat and blame Republicans for blocking immigration reform." To which we say, who? Which liberals? It seems Mr. Caputo is shooting from the hip; after all, he doesn't want to let the facts get in the way of appearing to be "balanced", now does he?

"Try again" on Citizens

The Miami Herald editorial board argues that Tally should "Try again" on Citizens.

Never mind

"PolitiFact Florida: Florida Democratic Party chair misfires on Scott's teacher pay raise priority".

Stearns tuffer than Crenshaw

"Ander Crenshaw's a Target, but He'll Be Tougher than Cliff Stearns to Bring Down".

"Here's a riddle"

The Miami Herald editors ask, "Here’s a riddle:"

What’s vital to the future of Florida, involves numerous interest groups around the country and is coming up for a crucial vote in the U.S. Senate? Hint: It’s not the hot-button immigration reform bill that has the chattering class inside the Beltway all a-buzz.

It’s not sexy, it’s not politically partisan and you’re not likely to see angry talking heads screaming about it on TV — which is why you may not have heard of the debate over the Water Resources Development Act that began last week on the floor of the Senate.

But for all its lack of glitz, passage of the bill is crucial to the future of Florida and its ability to compete economically.

"Bringing even more pain to unemployed Floridians"

The Tampa Bay Times editors: "If Florida's unemployment compensation system were a private business that depended on customer satisfaction, it would have been shuttered long ago. But unfortunately for the unemployed, Gov. Rick Scott's Department of Economic Opportunity has run the system just as some Republican leaders wanted: by denying thousands of legitimate claims over the past four years. Once again, the federal government has been forced to come to the rescue of Floridians whose state government has failed them. As the governor seeks re-election, he needs to correct a situation that increases cynicism about government and has resulted in the recent recession bringing even more pain to unemployed Floridians."

The U.S. Labor Department's Civil Rights Center issued a sharp rebuke to Scott's department last month, saying the agency's administration of unemployment compensation violated the civil rights of unemployed Floridians, particularly those who are disabled or speak Spanish or Creole.

The federal agency's investigation began shortly after the Republican-led Legislature in 2011 decided that all unemployment applications in Florida needed to be submitted over the Internet — ignoring that 40 percent of applicants preferred to use the phone. For applicants to collect an average weekly check of just $230, the Legislature also required them to answer 45 questions and prove they were contacting at least five employers weekly. Never mind that unemployment compensation is underwritten by private employers and only available to employees who are not fired for cause.

The state can absorb only so many T-shirt shops

The Tampa Trib editors warn that "the bottoming out of Florida’s economy during the recession should serve as a forceful reminder to lawmakers and other policy-makers that diversifying the economy is more important than ever." "Florida’s economic recovery merits applause and caution".

"In 50 words or fewer"

Scott Maxwell: "In some ways, the Florida Legislature is like a bomb." "Health care, teacher raises, 'revenge porn' in 50 words or fewer".

Nelson is almost sure

"Frustrated Sen. Bill Nelson has 'no plans' to challenge Gov. Rick Scott".

"A bad bill"

The Palm Beach Post's Rhonda Swan: "The Legislature finally has passed a bill to ease Florida’s foreclosure crisis. The problem is, it’s a bad bill that Gov. Scott should veto." "Scott should veto the Legislature’s foreclosure bill".

Entrepreneurs in action

"Affordable Care Act confusion fuels fraud".

"As always, South Florida is a poster child for nationwide dysfunction"

Carl Hiaasen: "Anyone who thinks the healthcare apparatus in this country doesn’t need radical liposuction should read through the new federal report on hospital costs."

Make that alleged costs. All over the country, hospitals are billing Medicare ludicrously different amounts for treating patients with the same disorder.

Make that alleged costs. All over the country, hospitals are billing Medicare ludicrously different amounts for treating patients with the same disorder.

As always, South Florida is a poster child for the nationwide dysfunction.

Stating the obvious

Robyn Blumner asks: "Want to know what an antitax politician really is? Someone who will vote against investing in public schools, parks and infrastructure, and who will privatize Medicare and Social Security."

She continues:

Want to know what a politician who says he opposes regulation is really against? A clean environment, controls on Wall Street and giving workers safe conditions, living wages and the right to organize.

Crist likes real big tents

"Charlie Crist touts big-tent appeal of Democratic Party".

Welfare much?

"Hertz, one of the nation's largest rental car companies, announced this week that it is moving its headquarters from New Jersey to Southwest Florida. The Fortune 500 company committed to the move after officials with the state and Lee County offered $19 million in economic incentives." "State, Local Governments Shell Out $19 Million for Hertz Relocation".

Republicans don' like Marco's amnesty stuff

"U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio’s immigration plan, which includes a path to citizenship for millions of undocumented immigrants living in the United States, still faces strong resistance from Republicans in Congress." "Poll Finds Floridians Support Path to Citizenship".

"No paper trail"

"Turn to any page of Florida's 450-page budget and what's most striking is the missing detail." "Lawmakers' pet projects leave no paper trail to Florida budget".