One poll, in particular, the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling shop out of North Carolina, reported last week that the two gubernatorial contenders were in a statistical tie among probable voters, with 43 percent supporting Crist and 41 percent for Scott.

The same firm 10 months ago found Crist with an edge of 52 percent to 40 percent. So in that time, Scott has managed to engineer a 10-point swing. Crist's fall is largely among GOP voters, who are returning to their party's incumbent candidate. Scott was capturing only 65 percent of Republicans last year but is drawing support from 80 percent of them now.

"The movement since the fall has come largely as a result of Republican voters rallying around Scott and continuing to decline in their affection for Crist," said PPP pollster Tom Jensen. "That shift with Republicans accounts for almost the entire 10-point movement in Scott's direction over the last few months."

Scott and Republicans have spent heavily to get to where they are now — and efficiently, when you consider he's within striking distance of re-election.

Scott and Florida Republicans raised $43.2 million last year, while Crist and the Democrats raised $8.6 million, state campaign-finance reports show.

Scott and those GOP operatives spent $14.8 million — a majority of it on ads and other efforts to portray Crist as a flip-flopper before the Democratic newbie could start defining himself. Crist's campaign actually didn't commence spending money until November, and combined with the Florida Democratic Party, spent only $2.9 million during the same period.

So Scott's total political operation has spent roughly $1.5 million for every percentage point of progress in the PPP poll. That's actually not too shabby.

If you assume Scott's campaign operation has grossed one-third its target of $100 million and Crist's side can raise $50 million, both campaigns could likely fight to a standstill in the fall — when more and more TV saturation produces diminishing returns in terms of influencing persuadable voters.

Critics have lamented for years how Scott "bought" the office. But they might look back on 2013 as the year he put his comeback on layaway.

More: "A new poll from Hamilton Campaigns confirms what other recent polls have found: that a race between Republican Gov. Rick Scott and Democratic former Gov. Charlie Crist looks close right now, with Crist just ahead."

The commissioned poll has Crist ahead by five points, 49-44. That's similar to other recent polls -- one recent poll had the race as close as two points -- yet tighter than polls taken in late 2013 when Crist's lead was in double digits.

Hamilton Campaigns is a Washington-based Democratic campaign polling consultant. Political Pulse obtained the new poll from a Tallahasse operative with ties to the Legislature. The new telephone survey poll, taken Jan 14-20 of 700 registered voters in Florida, has a margin of error of 3.8 points.

A year ago, Scott was doing a little better and Crist a little worse in Hamilton's surveys.

Runnin' gub'mint like a bidness

"It took Florida officials more than three months to decide to pay overdue jobless benefits to about 10,000 unemployed workers, many of whom went without checks since October because of a defective online registration system." "Why did Florida take three months to pay overdue unemployment claims?".

Florida's "a Scrooge-like mindset riddled with suspicion and skepticism"

The Miami Herald editors: "It’s no fun to be poor under any circumstances, but it’s especially tough in Florida. The state takes umbrage at helping the poor, doling out aid with a Scrooge-like mindset riddled with suspicion and skepticism."

Take Gov. Rick Scott’s 2010 campaign promise to give drug tests to Floridians on welfare. The Legislature approved the drug testing in 2011 and even made sure welfare beneficiaries paid the $35 cost for urine tests. After a federal judge ruled the tests unconstitutional, citing the Fourth Amendment’s protection against searches and seizures, Gov. Scott vowed to fight the ruling, spending tax dollars to press the state’s case.

Next, the Legislature refused to expand the state’s Medicaid program, even though, under the Affordable Care Act, the feds would pay for several years’ coverage for about a million Floridians not eligible under current Medicaid rules.

Now comes officials’ response to the state’s glitch-ridden new online unemployment-claim website, CONNECT. The site, like one recently launched in California, had a defective registration system, stopping unemployment checks in October because claimants’ eligibility couldn’t be verified. California took the humane route. It cut the checks first, then dealt with the online problems to determine eligibility later.

"The incredible, shrinking Charlie Crist campaign"

Adam Smith writes, "here's the reality: There is no real Crist campaign for governor."

Crist Campaign headquarters? Coming soon. Campaign manager? Coming soon. Halfway decent Web site? Coming soon. Press operation? Coming soon. Grass roots organizing? Who knows. Weekly announcements of Florida County leadership teams? Dream on.

It seems Team Crist, which largely consists of Charlie and Carole Crist, John Morgan, and a maybe a few Obama campaign alums, pressed the re-set button soon after his so-so campaign kickoff in downtown St Petersburg.

The fellow who had been more or less leading the campaign, veteran Democratic strategist Steve Schale, has significantly scaled back his involvement in the campaign though he insists he never wanted a big, daily role in the campaign and is still helping Crist on "special projects" such as his book roll out.

Team Crist jetissoned their campaign manager, Bill Hyers, just before he formally started, as well as Crist's "body man" and deputy fundraising chief, Michael Hoffman. Crist has long been known to rely mainly on his own political gut and a skeleton crew of paid staff. But that political gut has been suspect at best since he decided to give up the governor's mansion in 2010 and run for U.S. Senate in the 2010 tea party wave.

Now, Charlie Crist is a Democrat, and his state party shows nearly as little pulse as his own campaign. State Party Chairwoman Allison Tant, who campaigned for the post promising to be a terrific money-raiser, so far appears to be a lousy fundraiser. If she and the state party are effective at much else, such as registering voters or an effectove communications shop, we haven't seen it yet.

Boehner - "Jeb!" laff riot

"Boehner plugs Jeb Bush for president".

Hey Beth, try reading a book

Poor Beth Kassab, she wants to "hear some solutions from anti-testing crowd" (subscription required). Umm . . . Ms. Kassab . . . try reading a book, may we recommend this one.

Kassab and her ilk might wanna stop watching reruns of the nutty "Waiting for 'Superman'", and take a gander at this: "Florida lawmaker championing charter school bill has ties to industry". More: "The Myth of Charter Schools".

"Nan Has Her Own Campaign Sluggers"

Nancy Smith: "Look Over Your Shoulder, Charlie, Nan Has Her Own Campaign Sluggers".

Week in Review

"Week in Review for Jan. 24, 2014". See also "Weekly Roundup: Weddings, Water and Maybe Weed".

Is Bondi challenging the MJ initiative for political reasons?

William March: "Some Florida Republicans fear, and some Democrats hope, that a November referendum on legalizing medical marijuana in Florida will drive young and liberal voters to the polls, helping Democratic candidates including gubernatorial challenger Charlie Crist."

The initiative, still not certified for the November ballot, is generating charges of political motives from both sides.

Some Republicans call it an expensive ploy by Crist's backers to help him win.

“It is no coincidence that Charlie Crist's law partner and biggest supporter, John Morgan, is financing medical marijuana,” said Gainesville-based GOP consultant Alex Patton. “It's a plan.”

Some Democrats, meanwhile, say Republicans are trying to keep the measure off the ballot because they fear the voters it would draw to the polls.

In a political forum in Tampa last week, George Sheldon and Perry Thurston — Democrats running against Republican Attorney General Pam Bondi — accused Bondi of challenging the initiative in court for that reason.

Lobbyists and incumbents call for longer terms

Scott Maxwell remarks that no one wants "politicians to stay in office longer."

Yet that is precisely what Florida legislators are once again proposing — longer terms.

House Resolution 613 would ask Floridians to extend the eight-year cap that voters overwhelmingly approved in 1992 to 12 years.

Now, there are legitimate debates to be had about term limits and longer terms. (For instance, two-year terms mean the money chase is pretty much nonstop.)

But not in Florida — not until legislators stop gerrymandering the districts.

Right now, districts are rigged so precisely to favor certain candidates and parties that it's essentially an incumbent-protection act. Incumbents rarely lose. One year, none did ... in the entire state.

That's why the people who most often call for longer terms are the lobbyists who cozy up to the incumbents — and the politicians themselves.

Undocumented students may have "a formidable new champion"

Fabiola Santiago: "Young people in college who’ve lived all their lives in Florida, graduated from Florida high schools — often times at the top of their class — yet are denied in-state tuition rates because of their uncertain immigration status have found a formidable new champion: Republican House Speaker Will Weatherford." "Will Weatherford revives hope for Florida’s undocumented students".

Medical MJ gets enough signatures

"Supreme Court remains the only obstacle to November ballot. The Attorney General has argued that the ballot summary will mislead voters into allowing more widespread used of marijuana than the summary indicates and has asked the court to block it from the November ballot." "Medical marijuana drive tops signature goal".

"A lot of people have their eye on this race"

"As U.S. Sen. John McCain’s endorsement of David Jolly in Florida’s Congressional District 13 special election might suggest, a lot of people have their eye on this race. And, in many cases, their money." "District 13 hopefuls gain support".

Scott takes credit for merely "being there"

"Florida's unemployment rate fell to 6.2 percent in December and in Metro Orlando it dropped to 5.5 percent as the state added 14,100 new jobs, officials said Friday."

With an election looming in the fall, Gov. Rick Scott and his supporters have cited the tumbling unemployment rate as evidence that Scott's business-friendly leadership has helped heal the labor market. In a statement Friday, Scott said since he took office in 2011, Florida has created more than 462,000 private-sector jobs.

"It's clear that our economic policies are working," he said.

But while the first-term governor has been a tireless promoter of Florida, his progress on unemployment is not as dramatic as it first appears, experts say.

Florida's labor-force participation – the share of people working or looking for work – has fallen 4 percentage points from five years ago, and is now just less than 60 percent. When that number contracts, it is easier to post steep drops in the jobless rate.

Economists have estimated that more than half of the decline in Florida unemployment is attributable to the shrinking labor force, not new job creation. The national jobless rate and President Barack Obama have benefited from the same phenomenon.

Analysts have also pointed out that a broader measure of the labor market remains frustratingly high. Known by economists as the "U-6" rate, it includes the unemployed, people forced into part-time jobs and people who want to work but who have stopped looking.

In Florida, the U-6 rate has been running 6 to 7 percentage points higher than the more narrowly defined unemployment rate.

Through the third quarter of 2013, the most recent data available at the state level, the rate was 14.6 percent. Nationally, the U-6 rate in December was 13.1 percent.

Say it ain't so, another realtor on the hustings

"After two terms in the Florida House, Brad Drake stepped aside after redistricting in 2012 so fellow Republican Marti Coley could finish her last term. Drake has been running to return to Tallahassee ever since but now he has a major Republican opponent. Earlier this month, Realtor Jan Hooks filed to run for the seat which covers all of Holmes, Jackson, Walton, Washington counties and part of Bay County. Hooks has been a leading Realtor around the Emerald Coast and Northwest Florida for well over a decade and has dabbled in public service, sitting on the Freeport Zoning and Planning Board." "Brad Drake Draws Major Primary Opponent in Florida House Fight".

"Leaders ignore path to a sustainable South Florida at our peril"

The Miami Herald editors: "In the next 50 years some 3 million people will move to Southeast Florida, joining the 6 million already here. So what will the region look like in 2060?"

Will there be a 24/7 traffic jam on I-95? Will coastal cities see a big decline in tourism because their beaches disappeared under water from the rising sea level? Will one of the region’s economic drivers — agriculture — shrink as open land is converted to more suburbs to accommodate population growth?

Not if a forward-thinking consortium of public officials, urban planners and civic and business leaders called Seven/50 has anything to say about it. The consortium started asking the relevant questions three years ago to determine how best to guide the region’s growth through 2060.

Seven/50 stands for seven counties — Monroe, Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Martin, Indian River and St. Lucie — making up a super region. Guided by the South Florida and Treasure Coast regional planning councils and with a $3 million grant from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the group developed an intriguing blueprint to shape the region’s future, moving it toward economic prosperity while maintaining residents’ quality of life.

Shortly after that announcement, the campaign touted another big-hire from Obama's team: Teddy Goff, digital director for the president's reelection campaign, who oversaw its social media, web video and online advertising efforts.

Goff has been hired along with his firm, Precision Strategies, which includes other top Obama advisors.

Gov. Rick Scott's campaign announced last week that it was bulking up, naming spokeswoman Melissa Sellers as campaign manager and state Sen. John Thrasher as campaign chairman.

Crist leads Scott in the polls, but the Republican is walloping Crist in fundraising. Crist is posting solid fundraising numbers, and the news of Messina should help boost him further. . . .

Judging by the laser focus on Crist -- and private conversations -- Scott's backers and Florida Republican operatives are worried about a Crist comeback. The addition of Messina could make them even more concerned.

Same old

"Despite their new name, the education benchmarks known as the Florida Standards closely resemble the controversial Common Core State Standards." "Renaming ‘Common Core’ standards does little to end education debate".

"A very expensive indulgence"

A column by Fred Grimm in the Miami Herald that won't be read by Florida's Republican Party leadership: "The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in 2010 that a kid like Shimeek Gridine can’t be saddled with a mandatory life sentence."

So a circuit judge in Jacksonville sentenced the child to 70 years behind bars. For the young convict, the benefits of the high court’s ruling must seem elusive. . . .

Under state law, if Shimeek gets all possible credit for good behavior, he’ll be 77 before he emerges from prison. If he lives that long.

The Supreme Court ruled that in non-homicide cases, for child offenders, “A state is not required to guarantee eventual freedom to such an offender, but must impose a sentence that provides some meaningful opportunity for release based on demonstrated maturity and rehabilitation.”

“Meaningful opportunity for release” won’t mean much to a dead man.

The Supreme Court ruling came out of another Florida case, a 16-year-old armed burglar named Terrance Jamar Graham sentenced to life with no possibility of release. Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, writing the majority opinion, noted that the state “has denied him any chance to later demonstrate that he is fit to rejoin society based solely on a non-homicide crime that he committed while he was a child in the eyes of the law.”

It would seem that the Supreme Court had Florida in mind. But in 2012, Florida’s First District Court of Appeal upheld Gridine’s sentence. . . .

In October, young Gridine’s lawyer was trying again, this time before the state Supreme Court, arguing what would seem to be the obvious: That a 70-year sentence was tantamount to life. Though the best Shimeek could hope for, if the Supreme Court sides with his lawyer, would be the possibility of parole after 25 years.

But that introduces a sticky legal problem. In 1995, in another ill-considered gesture back when legislators were trying to outdo one another in getting tough on crime, Florida abolished parole. We still have a functioning state parole commission, but it deals only with the dwindling number of inmates (about 5,100) sentenced before the 1995 law was passed.

If the state legislature reinstated parole (a mighty if), Florida judges could fashion mean-sounding “life” sentences for the toughest juvenile cases that would still be compatible with the U.S. Supreme Court edict — rather than send a child like Gridine away until he’s 77.

Parole would also give Florida politicians a face-saving way out of another absurdity — the warehousing of harmless, elderly, sickly, very expensive prisoners who otherwise will serve out their mandatory sentences as high security nursing home patients. While a young prisoner costs about $22,000 a year, inmates over 50 (considered old by prison standards), with their escalating medical needs, run the cost up to about $67,000 per year.

Parole would allow Florida a civilized alternative to the legislature’s bizarre and costly notion that a 14-year-old should be subject to the same mandatory sentencing standards devised for adult convicts. Otherwise, by the time Shimeek Gridine walks out of prison at age 77 (if he lives that long), he’ll have become a very expensive indulgence in Florida’s get-tough-on-crime politics.

Environmental groups to hold rallies Wednesday

"Environmental groups will hold 16 rallies across the state Wednesday, including one in Tampa, to pressure state lawmakers into cleaning up Florida’s degraded waterways." "Environmentalists to protest water quality in Florida".

"Sink’s glass jaw"

Jeff Henderson: "David Jolly and his Republican allies are throwing everything but the kitchen sink (no pun intended) at [Alex Sink] as they look to hold on to the congressional seat Bill Young kept in the GOP column for more than 40 years. They’re hitting Sink on Obamacare, moving into the district just for the race, her record in Tallahassee and now wasting taxpayer dollars on travel when she was state CFO."

This is a close race, to be sure, with a St. Pete poll showing Jolly ahead by 4 percent, even as national pundits think Sink has the momentum to win the race. But Sink has often failed to show the ability to take a punch politically. She tightens up when facing tough questions and can blow big moments like the debate with Scott and its aftermath. Sink’s glass jaw has nothing to do with the political glass ceiling since there are plenty of female politicians, like Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Nikki Haley, Jan Brewer and plenty of others who have no problems landing or taking political attacks.

Sink’s failure to brush off attacks and adversity does show her lack of electoral and campaign experience. Even with her success against Lee [in the 2006 CFO race] and being the widow of former Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill McBride, Sink’s background is much more tied into the private sector than in politics. It showed in 2010 against Scott, another electoral novice certainly, but also one who gained political experience fighting against Obamacare in 2009.

This should be a close election, but Republicans are hoping they can trip Sink up with a barrage of attacks. The blows directed at her started well before the Republican primary. This race will be greatly shaped by how Sink deals with attacks against her, and Jolly and the GOP will do their best to test her ability to take a punch.

"Crist the wikigovernor"

Matt Reed will "leave it to the party faithful to decide whether Charlie Crist has been sufficiently Democratic or Republican."

His most important trait is real and decades-old: The guy lives to please and serve as many Floridians as possible — sometimes shifting positions and burning party leaders to do so.

Think that’s unprincipled? To the contrary, it may prove the most decisive and relevant principle in an age when everyone in the crowd expects to be heard and respected in Facebook comments, eBay reviews and text-voting for “American Idol” — not to mention their state government.

Call Crist the wikigovernor.

Routine hit piece

A routine hit piece on public employee unions, this time by Bill Cotterell: "Union power? Numbers say no".

The Florida senator, widely considered a presidential prospect, looks to states, not Uncle Sam, to confront poverty and help workers acquire the skills needed for higher-paying jobs. His latest proposals made him a leading conservative counterpoint to President Barack Obama's ideas for closing income gaps.

"Even people in the middle class have this pervasive sense that they are just one bad break away from losing everything they worked so hard for," Rubio told Florida reporters after launching his proposals. "And everyone believes that their kids are not going to have the same chance that they had."

Although polls show his rising star has dimmed, the Cuban-American from West Miami may be Republicans' best hope for uniting the party establishment with the tea party movement while reaching out to working-class and minority voters.

"He's still a leading candidate — a conservative from Florida, which always makes him viable," said Kevin Wagner, associate professor of political science at Florida Atlantic University. "He's certainly much more working-class than somebody like Mitt Romney.

Really, "much more working-class than somebody like Mitt Romney." Who isn't.

"Meek could remain in political limbo for a while"

Jeff Henderson: "Kendrick Meek returned to Tallahassee last week to honor Dr. Martin Luther King, in one of his most high-profile moments since his 2010 Senate bid."

To his credit, Meek handled the Senate race with grace, even as his campaign was undermined by a novice billionaire in the primaries and a party switcher in the general election. After the election, it was expected Meek would resurface. But despite being a good solider for the Democrats, Meek largely vanished from Florida politics after his underwhelming showing in 2010.

Meek has become forgotten by Florida Democrats as the man who assured he would not be a factor in the Senate race has moved to the head of the line. Despite Crist’s years as a Republican, Democrats across the nation have welcomed him to the party. Crist had a prime speaking spot at the Democratic convention in Charlotte as he endorsed Barack Obama. The likes of Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Allison Tant have done what they could to welcome Crist to the party as he runs against Rick Scott. Meek, on the other hand, has generally kept a very low profile and the Obama administration hasn’t been beating down his door with job offers. No reason for the Democrats to give any attention to Meek and remind party faithful what Crist did to him.

Meek is only 47 and he should have chances down the road, but the cards aren’t exactly friendly. Another Senate bid or a gubernatorial campaign seems out of the question after the 2010 debacle. Nor has Meek shown much interest in any of the state Cabinet offices. The only real option in the short run for Meek could be his old congressional seat. While she’s only in her second term, Frederica Wilson is 71 but she shows no signs of slowing down. Meek could remain in political limbo for a while even as the man who stole his thunder becomes Florida Democrats’ new love.

Gay clout comes out of the closet in gov's race

"This may be the year that gay political clout comes out of the closet in a Florida governor's race. Gay activists and others sympathetic to their causes are eyeing the 2014 governor's race as an opening, with a Democratic candidate, Charlie Crist, who professes to support the call for equal rights for marriage and workplace anti-discrimination." "Gay issues may rise in governor's race".

Understandably, "Republicans kept Chris Christie under wraps Saturday, and Democrats seized on the news vacuum by attempting to turn the New Jersey governor's Florida trip into a political liability."

U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Weston, chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, said she was happy to "welcome" Christie to the Sunshine State — with news conferences mocking Christie and his host, Florida Gov. Rick Scott, for avoiding public appearances.

She termed it "bizarre" for Scott to bring in Christie, a potential 2016 presidential candidate and chairman of the Republican Governors Association "and not brag about it, not show him off, not spend some time in front of the cameras." Her theory: "Rick Scott doesn't want to be seen standing next to Chris Christie and Chris Christie doesn't want to be answering any uncomfortable questions."

Perhaps we have it all wrong, and it was not Scott, but Christie who is concerned about being photographed with Scott, who after all is a man who once "invoked the Fifth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution 75 times." Not the best person for Christie to be seen with in the middle of multiple corruption investigations.

To be sure,

Scott said he wanted to fight the federal government accusations; the corporate board of Columbia/HCA wanted to settle, and did. In 2000, the company pleaded guilty to at least 14 corporate felonies and agreed to pay $840 million in criminal fines and civil damages and penalties. The company agreed to further settlements in 2002, paying an additional $881 million in fines.

Weekly Roundup

"Weekly Roundup: Rick Scott, Legislature Gear Up for 2014". See also "Week in Review for Dec. 20, 2013".

It would be "comical if it weren't so consequential"

The Tampa Tribune editorial board: "The state’s slippery effort to distance itself from the Common Core State Standards is bound to cause more problems than it solves. Gov. Rick Scott should quit trying to tiptoe around the issue and, like former Gov. Jeb Bush, candidly confront opponents’ inflated fears of the education standards."

Rather than embrace the standards Florida adopted in 2010, Scott has spent the past year placating critics who claim Common Core represents a federal takeover of the state’s education system.

He pulled the state from a consortium creating standardized tests related to Common Core, and ordered a public listening tour that resulted in 98 changes to the standards being proposed. For good measure, state officials now refer to them as “Florida standards,” rather than Common Core.

That could be considered comical if it weren’t so consequential.

"Headed for political obscurity"

"Carlos Lopez-Cantera is at the peak of his political career, but for the next few years, he may be headed for political obscurity. That’s what usually happens to lieutenant governors in Florida." "History predicts obscurity for Florida’s new lieutenant governor".

Ring may run for CFO

"In another ripple effect from Florida Atlantic University's moves to select a new president, state Sen. Jeremy Ring, D-Parkland, is thinking about running for state chief financial officer this year."

Just two months ago — one year before the general election in which voters will pick a new CFO — Ring said in an interview a the Sun Sentinel editorial board that he wouldn't be a candidate for anything in 2014.

There have been two big changes since then:

• Ring didn't make the list finalists on Monday for a job he coveted: president of Florida Atlantic University.

• Current Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater, a Republican widely favored for re-election, did make the finalist list for the FAU job.

If Atwater is selected [but he wasn't], he'd have to give up his seat in the Cabinet, which could give Democrats a shot at picking it up in the November election.

Florida to pay some jobless claims

"Florida's jobs agency met with federal Department of Labor officials over the state's problem-plagued unemployment compensation system and will now start paying claims on hold for more than seven days, the agency announced Saturday." "Rick Scott's jobs agency meets with feds over fouled-up unemployment system". See also "NEW: Fla. to pay thousands of held-up jobless claims".

"A behind-the-scenes dealmaker"

"The man Gov. Rick Scott selected to be his No. 2 has built a political career around being affable, loyal and not a rigid ideologue." "Florida’s next lieutenant governor is known as a behind-the-scenes dealmaker".