CD 13

Update: "Without President Barack Obama on the ticket, something weird happens to the Florida Democratic Party and its candidates in big midterm elections: They lose swing races." "Republicans' CD13 win gives Florida Democrats a bad case of déjà vu". See also "After David Jolly's Win in CD 13, Both Sides Spin the Results".

Republican David Jolly defeated Alex Sink by 89,099 votes to 85,642 votes (48.43% to 46.55%) for a congressional seat Republicans held for four decades until Bill Young's death last year. "The district is 37 percent Republican, 35 percent Democrat and 24 percent independent." "Republican David Jolly beats Alex Sink in Florida special election". See also "Jolly defeats Sink in key Pinellas House race" and "Republican Jolly wins Fla. congressional race". Meanwhile, "Fla. House race could be warning for Democrats". The right wing's take, by Jeff Henderson: "Workhorse David Jolly, Blundering Alex Sink". More from the right: "Winners and Losers in CD 13".

Avoiding "a constitutional crisis"

"The proposal from Sen. Tom Lee would clarify that the winner of the 2014 gubernatorial election would select three Florida Supreme Court justices slated to retire on Inauguration Day for the winner of the 2018 gubernatorial election in January 2019."

If Gov. Rick Scott wins reelection, he could flip the typical 5-2 liberal decisions of the court on major issues, since Pariente, Lewis and Quince make up the liberal bloc on the high court. If former Gov. Charlie Crist, now a Democrat, were to get his old job back, he could cement the 5-2 liberal majority on the court. Though Crist would have appointed all seven justices in that scenario, his conservative appointments during his stint as governor while he was a Republican - Justices Charles Canady and Ricky Polston – would remain on the bench.

Lee, though, sees legal headaches if Scott or Crist – or another Democrat – were to fight with the winner of the 2018 gubernatorial election over the court picks.

“There is a hole in our constitution right now that if we do not fix, we could be headed for a boatload of litigation in a constitutional crisis with a Supreme Court that has a cloud cast over every decision,” Lee said.

Medical Marijuana

Bill Cotterell: Views on medical marijuana change quickly

Nancy Smith: "The Senate Health Policy Committee unanimously approved a medical marijuana bill Tuesday that takes a bolder path to legalization than its House companion." "Senate Medical Marijuana Bill Adds Muscle to HB 843".

On the attack in CD19

"Republicans Go on the Attack in CD 19 Primary".

Bigger budget surplus

"State economists latest projection adds an additional $170 million to a billion dollar surplus for next year's state budget. And an improving economy is expected to produce even more money for 2015 - 2016. " "Budget surplus expected to grow".

Book talk

"Gov. Rick Scott, long rumored to be writing a book, recently told reporters it won’t be available until at least November."

“Not until after the election,” Scott said a few days ago.

Scott’s campaign manager, Melissa Sellers, said: “There’s basically no book going anywhere until after the election. There are a lot of other things going on.”

Apparently the people at Amazon.com have other ideas. The website on Tuesday began taking advance orders for a book it says will be available by April 15. The book’s title is Chasing Sunshine: Remarkable People Who Found the American Dream in Florida, published by Greenleaf Book Group Press.

"Chamber Doles Out Grades"

Kevin Derby: "U.S. Chamber Doles Out Grades to Florida Congressmen".

Florida Senate panel votes to allow teachers to pack heat

""An array of new gun legislation, including a proposal that would allow designated teachers to carry concealed weapons on campus, shows the NRA’s muscle in Tallahassee."

State lawmakers have a plan to keep kids safe at school: Allow teachers to pack heat.

The controversial proposal won the support of a Senate panel on Monday despite strong opposition from parent groups, school boards and the statewide teachers union.

It is one of several high-profile gun bills gaining traction in the Florida Legislature this year — and a sign that the National Rifle Association is once again flexing its muscle in Tallahassee.

Scott tangles with universities

"Currently, state universities can ask the Board of Governors for up to 15 percent higher rates, known as tuition differential." "Gov. Rick Scott, lawmakers tangle with universities over tuition costs".

"Rivera’s friend pleads not guilty"

"Ana Alliegro is charged with several campaign-finance violations in a case involving a proxy candidate in the Democratic primary of 2012." "Ex-Rep. David Rivera’s friend pleads not guilty to federal charges".

1. Early bird special - We might get an idea of which way the race is going early in the evening. That’s because, as of Sunday night, 117,000 people had already voted by mail — a figure that could surpass the number who head to the polls Tuesday.

2. North or south - As Election Day takes shape, keep a close eye on turnout reports from across the southwestern Florida district.

3. The spoiler - No one thinks a third candidate on the ballot, Libertarian Lucas Overby, has a shot at winning. But some Republicans are worried that Overby, who has raised a minuscule $30,000, could siphon off crucial votes from Jolly, and they’re determined to make sure he doesn’t.

4. The spin game - No matter the outcome, each party will try to frame it in its favor.

5. The recount factor - Florida might be best known for its 2000 ballot-counting shenanigans. And with operatives from both parties predicting a close race, another recount isn’t out of the question.

"The various campaigns and the pundits are expecting a close contest in Tuesday’s special election for the congressional seat left open by the death of longtime U.S. Rep. Bill Young, R-Fla., spending recent days scrambling to make last-minute appeals." "CD 13 Candidates Make Last Pitches in Close Contest".

See also "Florida special election pitting Sink , Jolly a testing ground for parties’ midterm strategies", "Florida Contest Closing With Appeals to the Middle: Jolly vs. Sink", "Florida special election pitting Sink, Jolly a testing ground for parties’ midterm strategies" and "Live results tonight: Florida 13th district special election".

"Scott rejects the idea that [his relationship with Fernandez] doesn’t pass the smell test"

Steve Bousquet writes today about one of Rick Scott's biggest, let's call him a "supporter" - one Mike Fernandez, a billionaire who made his money suckling the government teat (and at the same time whining to high heaven about "welfare queens"." Bousquet points out that

As Gov. Rick Scott gave his State of the State speech to open the legislative session last week, his cheering section looked on from the upstairs visitors box in the House chamber.

Scott’s wife, Ann, was there with their two daughters, sons-in-law and their young grandsons. Lenny Curry, chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, was there. So was Brian Ballard, a lobbyist who raises lots of money for GOP candidates.

Also nearby was Mike Fernandez, a wealthy Cuban-American healthcare executive from Coral Gables and co-finance chairman of Scott’s 2014 re-election campaign.

Fernandez owns MBF Healthcare Management, MBF Family Investments and other firms. The companies have won lucrative long-term contracts under the state’s Medicaid managed care program. Scott rejects the idea that it doesn’t pass the smell test for his leading fundraiser to have such a big stake in contracts doled out by agencies under Scott’s control.

"Whatever business Mike does with the state of Florida, he does on his own," Scott said. "If you listen to his story, he was escorted out of Cuba on a government plane. He believes in the dream of America, which is what I believe in."

The sheer magnitude of Fernandez’s investment in Scott’s future ensures that this story will be around for a long time.

On Monday, the Florida Democratic Party said: "It really pays off to be Rick Scott’s top campaign donor."

Disney profits soar, unions negotiate for $10.10 minimum

"The last time Walt Disney World and its largest group of unions negotiated a new contract, the resort was slogging through a year in which attendance sank and Disney's broader parks-and-resorts division posted its lowest operating profit in half a decade. Nearly four years later, the two sides are back at the bargaining table. Disney World is drawing record attendance, and Walt Disney Parks and Resorts recently announced the highest annual operating profit in its history. The more than 36,000 workers represented by the Service Trades Council — everyone from bus drivers to costumed-character performers — have noticed." "As Disney profits soar, unions negotiate for higher pay".

Changes in Florida election law

"A Florida Senate committee Monday moved forward with a bill that would make a few changes in Florida election law, including putting new restrictions on drop-off locations for absentee ballots and allowing online voter registration in the state." "Voting bill would allow on-line registration; restrict absentee drop-off locations".

Tucker Carlson, the best the NFIB could do?

"Besides the reception with Scott, the NFIB program features Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, state CFO Jeff Atwater, Senate President Don Gaetz, R-Fort Walton Beach, Weatherford and Rep, Mike Hill, R-Pensacola. Media figure Tucker Carlson is scheduled to meet with some members of the NFIB on Tuesday night." "Backing Rick Scott, NFIB Unveils 2014 Legislative Agenda".

Florida's Gender-Pay Gap

Nancy Smith writes that "Female income inequity is real and it's wrong, but women aren't going to win the war for equal pay by blatantly lying about it." "Feminist Group Won't Win by Lying about Florida's Gender-Pay Gap".

Raw political courage

"Senate backs tax holiday smaller than Scott wants".

"Ana Alliegro, arrested in Nicaragua last week, appeared for the first time Monday in Miami federal court, where prosecutors made sure she remained incarcerated amid an ongoing campaign-finance scandal tied to former congressman David Rivera."

According to an indictment, Alliegro and unnamed “co-conspirators” helped steer almost $82,000 in unreported contributions to the campaign of another co-conspirator, Justin Lamar Sternad, in a 2012 Democratic congressional primary. . . .

Outspoken and aggressive, Alliegro, a self-described Republican “bad girl,” said nothing Monday in federal court, where she appeared tired. . . .

In the Democratic race against Joe Garcia, Sternad had no political experience, no political name and little money. That’s where Alliegro came in, according to Sternad and the indictment. As early as May 2012, Alliegro allegedly began steering money to him and running his campaign. In June, $11,500 in cash was deposited into his campaign account. He then paid his $10,440 qualifying fee with the money.

Sternad never reported the source of funds, a violation of federal law. The indictment says Alliegro told him to lie on campaign-finance reports.

The bulk of the illegal money — some of it cash — was used to underwrite the cost of mailers, one of which savaged Garcia over his divorce. It’s unclear where Alliegro, who isn’t personally wealthy, got the $82,000 to spend on Sternad’s long-shot campaign.

The indictment says that, as early as July 2012, Alliegro and an unnamed co-conspirator met with a graphic designer to develop Sternad’s mailers.

A month later, as the Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald noticed Sternad’s suspicious campaign filings — because they lacked details about the source of funds — two campaign vendors said in interviews that Rivera and Alliegro were behind Sternad’s campaign.

The FBI began investigating the case after the Herald articles.

Saunders Looks Safe

"After surviving one of the most contested Florida House races in 2012, Joe Saunders can expect a much easier assignment in 2014. The Orange County Democrat gained some political experience during his time with Equality Florida but he turned his eyes to running for elected office in 2012, setting his sights on the House seat Darren Soto was leaving as he ran for the Senate. After a contested primary with attorney Shayan Elahi, who spent more than $60,000, Saunders moved on to the general election to take on Republican Marco Pena, an executive at Florida Hospital." "Joe Saunders Looks Safe in November After Dramatic House Win in 2012".

Crist out-raised Scott in February

"Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Charlie Crist out-raised Gov. Rick Scott in February, the first time the former governor has out-grossed the current one in the four months they’ve been officially running against each other."

Scott’s down month might be a brief lull. He is slated to attend a $25,000-a-head fundraiser with former GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney at the South Florida mansion of health-care executive Mike Fernandez of Coral Gables (who has given $1.25 million to Scott’s re-election).

And the spring is when the governor has the most leverage over the fate of bills, a time-tested method for opening the wallets of companies and contributors with business in the Legislature.

False. No other potential Republican candidate (Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Texas Gov. Rick Perry or former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee) has a higher hill to climb against a Democrat than Florida’s popular[*] ex-governor, a new Washington Post-ABC poll suggests.

When 873 registered voters were asked in late January which Republican they would definitely not vote for, 50 percent said there’s no chance they would vote for Bush.

That ranked Bush as the most soundly rejected of the possible presidential candidates. Christie, Cruz, Huckabee and Perry each were rejected by 42 percent of respondents. A third of those surveyed (33 percent) said they would not vote for Rubio. . . .

The same poll indicates Bush would have easiest time winning the GOP nomination against the same field. Of 457 Republicans surveyed, 76 percent said they would either vote for or consider voting for Bush. Next closest among eight surveyed was Paul (67 percent) and Huckabee (66 percent). Rubio came in next at 65 percent.

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*It bears noting that Florida's professional chatterers continue to call Jeb Bush "popular," even in the face of empirical evidence like this.

"Scott’s ad is a scare tactic"

"Seniors (particularly voters), listen up: Medicare cuts have arrived — and the way Gov. Rick Scott tells it, they’re going to lead to some sickening results."

Scott’s ad is a scare tactic that omits several caveats. We rate this claim Mostly False.

"Running along the edge of acceptable adult behavior"

Steven Girardi: "March 11 — [Tuesday] — is Election Day and, by the grace and mercy of God, the end of the campaign for the District 13 U.S. House of Representatives seat — a two-month free-for-all of name calling and shin kicking not seen anywhere outside of a school yard during second-grade recess."

It has been 43 years since anyone besides C.W. Bill Young has occupied this esteemed office, which became available upon his death in October. If this is what we’ve been missing, another 43 years might be too soon.

In political campaigns, as in wars, the truth often is the first casualty. Reasonable and alert people expect as much. But even that provides no sense as to why this election spat between Democrat Alex Sink and Republican David Jolly turned into mud wrestling.

And pity poor Lucas Overby, a Libertarian who unexpectedly found himself as the moderate voice of reason. For Libertarians, who run best and happiest as outsiders poking sticks into the government machinery, that’s not where you’re prepared to be.

Sadder still is that Sink and Jolly, two otherwise successful, competent and civil human beings, seemingly lost control of their own campaigns, and of their own voices. They bemoan the lies, accusations and generally bad etiquette of the campaign, along with the absurd amounts of money ($9 million-plus by some counts) that poured in from everywhere, but either could not or chose not to stop it. They were hijacked by national campaigns and political organizations that see this race as some kind of mood ring for the country.

Just for fun, does anyone really think Alex Sink, a serious-minded woman and the former chief financial officer of the whole darn state, is a racist and a bigot? That she supports immigration reform to make sure Florida’s hotels, restaurants and lawn services don’t run out of cheap labor?p> Or how about this: Does anyone really think David Jolly, no matter for whom he may or may not have lobbied in Washington, is A-OK with oil drilling platforms off the shores of Treasure Island or Clearwater Beach? That the same man who supports spending millions of federal dollars to pump sand onto eroding tourist beaches would risk, politically if nothing else, turning them into oil fields?

Political campaigns by nature tend to run along the edge of acceptable adult behavior. This one ran right off. Or is there such little regard and expectation for the truth anymore that the old Lyndon Johnson tactic (reportedly) — sure it’s not true, I just want to hear him deny it — is just swell with everybody?

Rubio sees big drop in support

"Rand Paul wins 2014 CPAC straw poll, Ted Cruz finishes a distant second - Rubio and Ryan, GOP leaders in Congress all see big drops in support".

"It’s like a twisted Comedy Central sketch — if you pass the exam, you die"

Carl Hiaasen: "For 35 years, Florida has been trying to execute Freddie Lee Hall, who is mentally disabled and has been his whole life."

Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court heard the state’s solicitor general argue that the execution should go forward because Hall scored too high on IQ tests to be spared from the death penalty. . . .

In 2002, the Supreme Court ruled it was unconstitutional to execute mentally retarded persons, saying that IQ scores below “approximately 70” showed serious intellectual disability. Individual states were left to hammer out details of the exemption.

Several of the Supreme Court justices last week questioned why Florida lawmakers imposed an arbitrary IQ threshold of 70 when most psychiatrists recognize margins of error spanning five points or more.

Justice Stephen G. Breyer proposed that trial courts require clinical experts to explain IQ parameters to the judge or jurors who were deciding if a defendant was intellectually disabled.

Asked Breyer, “What’s so terrible about doing it?”

“What is so terrible about doing it,” replied Florida solicitor general Allen Winsor, “is you end up increasing the number of people who would be eligible for a mental-retardation finding.”

God forbid.

The last thing we’d want to do is thin out Death Row, where inmates currently spend an average of about 25 years appealing their sentences, at enormous taxpayer expense.

Some will say it’s just as immoral to lock up a mentally disabled person for life as it is to execute him, but nothing can excuse the crimes that Freddie Lee Hall took part in. He belongs in prison forever.

And that would be his certain future, if only he’d gotten one or two problems wrong on his IQ test, scoring a 70 instead of a 71. It’s like a twisted Comedy Central sketch — if you pass the exam, you die.

Florida authorities seem concerned that some inmates who aren’t really mentally disabled will be able to dodge lethal injection if the law is made more flexible.

Internet cafe overload

"A year after the Florida Legislature approved sweeping legislation that led to the closing of Internet cafes and senior arcades across the state, some lawmakers are hoping tweaks to the law might help fix some of the unintended consequences."

Two Senate bills have been filed to address arcade games, such as those found at bowling alleys and Chuck E. Cheese, which might have gotten swept up in the frenzy to pass a bill shutting down so-called Internet cafes.