"Conservative threat"

"Once dubbed America's most divisive governor, Wisconsin's Scott Walker may be the biggest threat to the presidential ambitions of Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton." "Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, 47, presents a fresh face in what could be a crowded field. Getty Images Meet Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, the conservative threat to Jeb Bush."

Weekly Roundup

"Weekly Roundup: Nearing the Halfway Mark."

"Time to celebrate 'Cut My Taxes Week' with Rick Scott!"

"Wake the kids, time to celebrate 'Cut My Taxes Week' with Rick Scott!" "Scott’s Magical ‘Tax Cut Calculator’ Obscures Nation’s 2nd Most Unfair Tax System." See "Calculator in hand, Scott makes tax-cut push."

"Democrats Divided"

"Democrats Divided on Who to Back in Florida's 2016 Senate Race."

"Rubio has reserved the Freedom Tower"

"Marco Rubio has reserved the Freedom Tower in downtown Miami for an undisclosed event April 13 in what appears to be a potential, if not likely, spot for Florida's junior senator to announce his candidacy for president." "Rubio might announce campaign April 13 at Miami's Freedom Tower."

"Without a word of debate"

"Without a word of debate Friday, the Florida House approved a controversial proposal that could require school districts to share tens of millions of dollars in construction funds with rival charter schools."

The bill was one of four high-profile education proposals that won the support of the Republican-dominated House to end the week. The others would:

•Ease the penalties for schools that fail to comply with the constitutionally mandated limits on class size.

•Create a pilot program to give principals more control over hiring and budget decisions.

•Encourage school districts to adopt mandatory school uniform policies for children in grades K-8 by offering incentive money.

All of the Democrats in attendance voted against the charter school bill, HB 7037. But none debated the measure on the floor.

"God and Jeb"

"Inside Jeb Bush's Stealth Campaign to Woo Christian Conservatives."

Bush said through a spokeswoman that he was unaware of the account, although records showed that people wrote to him there more than 400 times between 1999 and 2004.

Watch Florida's political poodles leap to Jeb's defense, even as Jeb himself skirted Florida law in disclosing his emails, and otherwise was quick to criticize Clinton's email practices.

More: "Jeb Bush: I'm No Hillary Clinton When it Comes to Email" and "Bush’s aides pointed gleefully to their handling of electronic correspondence as a model."

State healthcare funding under scrutiny

The Miami Herald editorial board: "Critical questions facing state’s healthcare funding."

Yee Haw!

"After a debate that conjured memories of Hurricane Katrina, the Florida Senate on Tuesday overwhelmingly passed a bill that could lead to more people carrying concealed weapons when fleeing natural disasters." "Florida Senate passes bill to allow guns during evacuations."

PPP Poll: "Clinton has leads of 2-8 points over all GOP contenders in Florida"

"Floridians aren't very excited about the prospect of either Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio running for President, and Hillary Clinton leads the entire field of potential GOP candidates in the state."

Floridians aren't very excited about the prospect of either Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio running for President, and Hillary Clinton leads the entire field of potential GOP candidates in the state.

Only 37% of Florida voters think Jeb Bush should run for President, to 52% who say they think he shouldn't. The numbers for Marco Rubio on that front are almost identical- 35% say he should run to 51% who believe he should sit it out. The lack of enthusiasm for either Bush or Rubio making a White House bid is at least partially a function of their not being terribly popular. 45% of voters approve of the job Rubio is doing as a Senator to 40% who disapprove. Bush's favorability numbers are similar with 45% giving him good marks to 42% with a negative opinion. Their numbers aren't bad but they aren't that impressive either.

Hillary Clinton has leads of 2-8 points over all of the potential GOP contenders in the state. Rubio comes the closest at just a 48/46 deficit and Bush is down by a similar margin at 47/44. Rand Paul trails by 4 at 46/42, Mike Huckabee's down 5 at 49/44, Chris Christie and Ted Cruz each trail by 7 at 48/41 and 49/42 respectively, and Ben Carson (49/41), Rick Perry (50/42), and Scott Walker (49/41) all lag Clinton by 8 points.

House approves even more tax cuts than Scott wants

"The House approved a tax cut plan that is slightly larger than a $673 million tax-cut package that Gov. Rick Scott proposed, but it remains to be seen if the Senate will go along with such large cuts." "Florida House and Senate battle over tax cuts." More: "Calculator in hand, Scott makes tax-cut push."

Jeb not the "popular former governor" as the media endlessly bleats

The recent PPP poll reveals something all Floridians - aside from Florida's Bushco xxxxx "45% giving him good marks to 42% with a negative opinion" Full results here. Here's how 538 rates this polling operation.

Whoopee!

"Lawmakers tout $160 in tax cuts for each state family."

Clinton early favorite among Dems in Florida

"Democratic-aligned Public Policy Polling (PPP) [you may want to 538's detailed analysis before accepting that statement] released a poll of Florida Democrats Tuesday which shows Clinton as the early favorite in the Sunshine State, blowing out the field with 58 percent support. Vice President Joe Biden takes a very distant second with 14 percent followed by U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. with 10 percent. Warren has said she will not run if Clinton enters the contest." "Hillary Clinton Blowing Out 2016 Democratic Primary Rivals in Florida."

Neo-Confederates infuriated

"All three men had been chosen by a nominating council of seven volunteers to be members of the 2014 class of the Florida Veterans Hall of Fame. They were denied recognition not because of politics but on narrow legal grounds, which only infuriated their supporters more." "Gov. Rick Scott and Cabinet refuse to honor Confederate war heroes."

House Committee approves backyard firing ranges

"A House panel Tuesday shot down a measure aimed at clamping down on backyard shooting ranges in residential neighborhoods."

The Criminal Justice subcommittee killed the bill (HB 623) by an 8-5 vote after opposition by the National Rifle Association.

“What this is all about is preventing discharge of a firearm on private property, period,” NRA lobbyist Marion Hammer said.

The bill’s sponsor, Democratic state Rep. Darryl Rouson of St. Petersburg, said he sought only “to curtail the use of a gun range, which the law currently allows, in urban and residential settings.”

He filed the legislation after reports that a St. Petersburg man had set up a makeshift firing range of wooden pallets and sand, upsetting neighbors.

Florida Senate rebukes President Obama

"The measure, which rebukes President Obama for opening up diplomatic relations with Cuba, is largely symbolic." "Florida Senate votes to oppose U.S.-Cuba relations."

"The announcement sets the stage for a big-money, high-profile Senate race next year — whether Rubio seeks re-election or decides instead to run for president."

Murphy, 31, toppled Republican Congressman Allen West, a tea-party favorite, in 2012 before easily defeating former state Rep. Carl Domino in 2014. Murphy’s campaign said Monday that he raised more than $11 million for the two campaigns, hinting at his ability to pull in the massive amounts of cash that would be needed to win a U.S. Senate seat.

In the announcement, Murphy presented himself as a businessman who would be an “independent voice for Florida.” Murphy, who lives in Jupiter, represents a congressional district that includes St. Lucie and Martin counties and northern Palm Beach County.

"Um … no, not a done deal"

"Funny thing about the “will of the people” in Florida. Even when expressed via an overwhelming majority “Yes” vote on a constitutional amendment, the Legislature can and does subvert it."

That’s what’s happening with the environmental protections and preservations Floridians thought were a done deal after more than 75 percent of voters joined forces to pass Amendment 1 last November. But, um … no, not a done deal.

Stop the madness

"Children would be allowed to enroll in any public school in the state that hasn’t reached capacity under a new legislative proposal." "Bill would give more choices to students about where they can enroll."

FRS deform dead again

"A move to revamp Florida’s $160 billion state retirement system is dead for the 2015 session."

House Speaker Steve Crisafulli, R-Merritt Island, said questions about a new financial analysis of proposed changes to the pension fund have prompted him to call off any legislation this spring on the Florida Retirement System. Instead, Crisafulli said lawmakers will now put an extra emphasis on bills seeking to reform municipal pension funds for police and firefighters this year.

As in the past two years, House leaders had pushed legislation to reduce the size of the Florida pension fund for state workers, school system employees and county workers over the long term. The main emphasis was to encourage more workers to sign up for a 401(k)-type investment plan for their retirement rather than the more costly traditional pension with its guaranteed benefits.

Last year, lawmakers agreed on a local pension reform bill. But it died in the session when it became entangled with a state pension reform measure that was rejected narrowly by the Senate.

State Rep. Dwayne Taylor, D-Daytona Beach, said he was pleased by Crisafulli’s decision and he hoped it would mean lawmakers would look at other issues.

“It’s to Speaker Crisafulli’s credit that he sought out expert opinion on the proposals to change our healthy Florida Retirement System,” Taylor said. “I thank (him) for his decision, given the results of those studies, to focus this year on other pressing matters.”

"Whispers that Southerland could seek rematch"

"Whispers are growing louder that Steve Southerland could seek a rematch with Gwen Graham in 2016." "Steve Southerland Faces Uphill Battle in Possible Rematch With Gwen Graham."

FlaDem delegates will continue to be distributed proportionally regardless of primary date

"Gov. Rick Scott signed a bill Thursday setting the primary date, which will give Republicans the option of making the election a winner-take-all contest. The law previously had the date set for March 1, but that would have meant the Republican delegates would be dispersed proportionally. Democratic delegates will be distributed proportionally regardless of the primary date." "Scott signs bill moving presidential primary to March 15."

"Jeb!" denies he's a wingnut

"Jeb Bush visits Daytona for fundraiser."

Budget blues

"Budget vote delayed over battle between House GOP factions." More: "Florida House releases nearly $76.2 billion spending plan."

Yee haw!

"Bear hunt expected to take place in October." More: "Senate Committee Agrees to Guns on Public School Campuses."

"Folly of the state’s write-in candidate laws"

Tampa Trib editors: "The folly of the state’s write-in candidate laws was on full display last year in the Florida House District 64 race in the Tampa Bay area." "Editorial: Lawmakers have chance to fix flawed write-in law."

"Under the Radar Democrat"

Kevin Derby: "Over the last five years, U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson continued his stint as the most consistently effective Democrat in Florida in recent years, even as he often took a supporting role on the political stage." "Bill Nelson, Under the Radar Democrat."

Tax credit program to end

"Tax credit program for blighted areas to end."

"The conversation no one wants to have"

"Talking taxes is the conversation no one wants to have. Not in Washington, where anti-tax sentiments prevail. And definitely not in Florida, where a Republican-controlled legislative and executive branch dismiss the idea." "Gov. Rick Scott and DOT reject talk of gas tax increase despite transportation deficit."

She "can't defend forcing Barton Bibler, a longtime, valued employee at the Department of Environmental Protection, to take a leave of absence and seek a mental health evaluation ... for what? For writing a report he was asked to write. Mostly, his crime was using the phrases 'climate change' and 'global warming' in the report."

OK, it's a little more complicated than that. Bibler circled the words "Keystone XL pipeline" and put a line through them. And he was obviously glad to hear discussion of climate change at the Coastal Managers Forum.

The fact is, climate change, rising sea levels and the possible environmental impact of the Keystone XL Pipeline all were discussed at the meeting.

Bibler has an opinion, for heaven's sake. He's not a slug. Is that a firing offense? It's not as if the report he turned in was a treatise on global warming; not as if it was going to be distributed to the press (though now it might be). It was inside baseball. As a longtime employee, he probably should have learned by now that color commentary from rank-and-file bureaucrats is frowned upon.

In Florida, pollution, sea level rise and wildlife habitat loss are worsening

"Bill Maxwell": "Game on!"

How else do we describe the portent of President Barack Obama's veto of a GOP-sponsored bill that would have forced authorization of the 875-mile Keystone XL pipeline? By rejecting the bill, Obama not only enraged Republicans; he deepened the wrath of the oil industry and other businesses with financial interests in the venture.

The veto is being called a "milestone" in Obama's presidency. Not only will it bring more partisan gridlock in Washington, its ideological impact will be felt nationwide, especially in Florida where environmental problems such as water pollution, sea level rise and wildlife habitat loss are worsening.

"Destiny and DNA might have foretold that Jeb Bush would make a run"

"Destiny and DNA might have foretold that Jeb Bush would make a run for the White House someday, aiming for a job that both his father and brother held. That his wife Columba stands a chance of becoming the first Latina first lady is a more unlikely story." "Columba Bush’s painful, unlikely road toward the White House."

"A tale of two budget proposals"

"Now that lawmakers may be facing a potential $1.3 billion hole in the health care budget, many of Gov. Rick Scott’s once-obtainable goals are in sudden limbo as money gets shifted around to cover gaps." "A tale of two budget proposals leaves Gov. Rick Scott’s tax cuts, education spending at risk." See also "Florida House, Senate budgets are $4.3 billion apart."

Sorry Jeb, no "Homeland Security" for you in Florida

"The Jeb Bush effort in Florida, code-named 'Homeland Security,' will pour enormous resources and energy over the next year into a state that many thought Bush, its governor from 1999 to 2007, would be able to count on as a bedrock of support." "Seen as Linchpin, Florida Is Focus of ‘16 Bush Plan."

"Bush is the front-runner in the financial sense, but no other"

In Michael Tomasky's take on books attributed to GOPer candidates for president in the New York Review of Books, he first discusses Jeb Bush, a candidate whose hirelings have not yet written a book to which he can assign his name:

[I]n his first big policy speech, Jeb Bush emphasized the “opportunity gap,” telling the Detroit Economic Club that “only a small portion of the country [is] riding the up escalator.” Median incomes are down, he said, and “households are, on average, poorer.” In Romney’s absence, Bush has become the instant front-runner among the candidates representing the establishment wing of the party, and the big money will likely coalesce around him and his message, at least to the extent to which conservative plutocrats can bear to do so.

On the evidence of his February 18 speech to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Bush’s foreign policy will not differ dramatically from his brother’s. Rhetorically, Bush tries to sound more like his realist, cautious father. But the substance of his policy positions puts him closer to George W. (the phrase “take them out” when applied to the Islamic State can mean only a ground war, although he’s not likely to admit to that). And he is surrounding himself with some of his brother’s key advisers—most surprisingly Paul Wolfowitz, the intellectual architect of the disastrous Iraq intervention.

The odd thing is that Bush polls no better against Clinton than several of the other candidates; so he is the front-runner in the financial sense, but no other. His politics are basically conservative, which is reflected by his record as governor of Florida on issues from education to privatization to his lamentable handling of the Terri Schiavo case, when he defied all medical expertise and advice to pander to a right wing that believes in preserving “life” in all situations.

But, surely aware that staking out nothing but those kinds of positions makes a Republican unelectable, Bush began a couple of years ago to present himself as more moderate, on immigration and supporting the “Common Core” learning standards and, now, on economics, which will obviously be his major talking point. Naturally, these positions have awakened contempt for and distrust of Bush within the more extreme base voters, among whom he polls poorly. A big fight clearly looms.

Unlike the other campaign books, American Dreams is at least largely about policy. There are chapters on the struggles of the middle class, regulation in the age of the “sharing economy” (Uber, Airbnb, etc.), higher education, retirement, economic security, and, inevitably, values. Chapters open with homiletic descriptions of the particular crisis in question, told through the stories of a few real-life Americans Rubio has encountered in his journeys, and then move on to prescriptions.

His prescriptions aren’t innovative. On poverty, as he said in his speech about a year ago, he wants the federal government to eliminate many of its programs and turn the money over to the states with fewer strings attached. Ronald Reagan proposed this a generation ago. Rubio’s chapter on retirement largely repeats the proposals set forth by Paul Ryan in his budgets, proposals that would (especially with regard to Medicare) result in much higher out-of-pocket expenses for future seniors, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Where his solutions aren’t standard conservative policies, they are in fact already in place. With regard to higher education, for example, he wants a transparent, return-on-investment kind of ranking of colleges and universities, so that applicants and parents can see what kinds of salaries graduates make. And he favors something called “income-based repayment” that would reduce the monthly cost of most graduates’ loans. These are plausible ideas. The Obama administration has instituted them both (though not yet on a large scale).

"Online voter registration"

The Tampa Bay Times editors: "Florida should allow online voter registration."