The Florida Supreme Court ruled last week that Republican strategist Pat Bainter and his Gainesville-based campaign-consulting firm, Data Targeting, must make public hundreds of pages of emails, maps and other documents that will provide more insight into the role they played in the state's redistricting process. But like every page in this drama, the smoking gun will probably be elusive by design.

He has argued for nearly two years that disclosing the documents would violate his constitutional right to free speech and reveal trade secrets. The trade-secret argument might be a heavy lift, because the data we're talking about are publicly available and have been crunched by everybody from Boston political scientists to college students and tea-party activists since 2012. How they analyze it to decide where lines could be drawn to maximize GOP gains in Congress and the Legislature might be unique but hardly a "trade secret."

The First Amendment argument, though, is an important one. The groups fighting for release of the emails — the League of Women Voters of Florida and a cadre of media organizations — have argued along the same grounds that the public was entitled to access these records.

Bainter runs one of the highest-paid political shops in Florida. It just banked at least $3.7 million from House and Senate campaigns, including one supposedly hotly contested for Sen. Jeff Brandes, R-St. Petersburg; the campaign of Sen. Dorothy Hukill, R-DeLand; and newly elected, 23-year-old Rep. Jennifer Sullivan, R-Mount Dora, among many others.

The documents are bound to include lots of juicy tidbits of communication among Bainter, his operatives and lawmakers and their campaign staff.

"The Florida Supreme Court delivered a stinging rebuke to a top Republican political consultant Thursday, ordering that 538 pages of his documents be made public from the legal fight over the Legislature’s efforts to redraw congressional district boundaries ruled unconstitutional." "Court orders GOP consultant’s redistricting docs made public" (Subscription).

FlaDems "look inward"

"Dems squabble, look inward after brutal losses." (Subscription)

"Scott may reward campaign manager"

"Gov. Rick Scott may reward campaign manager with chief of staff job ("Tallahassee insiders say Melissa Sellers may be the next chief of staff to Gov. Rick Scott.")" (Subscription)

"Scott’s military veteran status is nothing to brag about"

Frank Cerabino: "Gov. Rick Scott’s Navy ball cap, one of his go-to campaign props, has apparently gone to his head. That’s the only rational explanation for his move to put a brick inscribed with his own name in the new Veterans Walk of Honor in Tallahassee." "Scott’s military veteran status is nothing to brag about" (Subscription).

Empty chair

"When lawmakers enter the Capitol next week to organize themselves for next year’s legislative session, state Rep. Jamie Grant may not be among them. . . . But because of a protracted legal struggle involving a write-in candidate, a valid election has yet to be held for the seat, meaning more than 157,000 people don’t have a state representative. " "Legislature might hold first meeting with Tampa seat empty."

Rising Star

"Ron DeSantis is a rising star for Florida Republicans but he could be facing something of a headache in the days ahead." "Ron DeSantis Has Choices to Make as GOP Special Election Primary Kicks Off."

"The kooks are pounding on the door"

"In the wake of the midterm elections, Republicans said they would prove they could govern. . . . But just a week and a half after the elections, the kooks are pounding on the door." "Conservatives: Let’s Prove We Can Govern by Shutting Down the Government and Impeaching Obama."

Weekly Roundup

"Weekly Roundup: A Big Supply of Demand."

Rivera "a bit... paranoid"

"Former U.S. Rep. David Rivera is known in Florida political circles to be a bit... paranoid." "The tale of the tail: David Rivera calls cops on mysterious follower." (Subscription)

"Election could be decided by a coin toss"

"With the high-profile governor’s race safely in the books[*], it seems as though the state escaped major election controversies. That would be true, unless you live in Mount Dora, where a local election could soon be decided by a coin toss." "Coin Toss May Decide Florida Election."

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*Actually no, the election isn't quite yet "safely in the books: Section 102.111(2), Florida Statutes provides that the Elections Canvassing Commission doesn't meet until "the 14th day after a general election to certify the returns of the election for each federal, state, and multicounty office."

United Way: 30 percent of Florida households make less than "survival budget"

"In addition to the 15 percent of Florida households that make less than the federal poverty level — a benchmark that hasn't been adjusted since 1974 — 30 percent make less than a "survival budget" and are struggling to get by, according to a United Way report." "Interactive map: Nearly half of Floridians struggling to get by financially." See also: "Florida gets D grade for preterm births" (Florida’s preterm birth rate is among the highest in the nation, according to a new report from the March of Dimes.)

Florida Blue

From the Huffington Post: "Why Florida Is About to Turn Blue -- And Is Not Turning Back Anytime Soon."

Will Rubio flip-flop on Senate promise?

"After getting walloped at the polls last week, Florida Democrats now face the challenge of finding a Senate candidate in 2016."

A large part of it depends, of course, on what Marco Rubio does. Earlier this year, Rubio said he would not run for another term if Democrats had a lock on the Senate or if he decides to run for president. Rubio starts off as the favorite if he wants a second term in the Senate, though Republican odds diminish if he decides to aim for the White House.

Either way, Democrats have a decision to make about finding a candidate. Looking at how they can recapture the Senate in 2016, James Hohmann at Politico was spot on with his assessment about the Democrats’ dilemma. They simply don’t have the strongest of benches to find many credible candidates in Florida.

Hohmann mentions Charlie Crist as a possibility. Crist ran for the Senate twice before, losing as a Republican to Bob Graham in 1998 and to Rubio in 2010 when he left the GOP to run with no party affiliation. Last week Rick Scott edged Crist, now a Democrat, in the gubernatorial race. In the aftermath of his defeat, Crist is now facing questions about how he ran his campaign. He could be hard-pressed to build up another campaign war chest so quickly.

It’s tough to see how Crist takes on Rubio, who beat him in the early stages of the Republican primary contest and did so again in the general election in 2010. And Crist could be a tough sale again considering his most recent loss; but Florida Democrats will need a candidate who would do no harm to Hillary Clinton or whoever is their presidential nominee in 2016. Crist could fit the bill, especially if Rubio doesn’t run again.

Bondi denies she is compromised

"Attorney General Pam Bondi adamantly defended herself Wednesday when questioned about news reports suggesting she has cozy relationships with out-of-state lobbyists and corporate lawyers."

The New York Times and the Tampa Bay Times, in a number of recent articles, detailed how Washington lobbyists have sought to influence state attorneys general to the benefit of private corporations.

Bondi was given prominent coverage in the articles. The reports noted she took a free charter flight to a luxury resort on Mackinac Island, Mich., and while there invited Lori Kalani, a lobbyist and lawyer at D.C.-based Dickstein Shapiro, to stay at her Tampa home to recuperate from a foot injury.

House Deputy Majority Leader/Whip

"As he readies to take the gavel this month, incoming Florida House Speaker Steve Crisafulli, R-Merritt Island, continues to build his team. On Wednesday, Crisafulli named Rep. Jim Boyd, R-Bradenton, as deputy majority leader and whip, serving under incoming House Majority Leader Dana Young, R-Tampa." "Jim Boyd Takes Over as House Deputy Majority Leader/Whip."

Rubio yawner

"Marco Rubio's new book set for January release."

Pafford challenge ripped

"The head of the Florida Democratic Party blasted a rebellious faction of her party's House caucus Wednesday, less than a week before members are set to vote on a leader for the 2015 legislative session. In an interview with The News Service of Florida, Chairwoman Allison Tant said House Democrats should move on after an ugly defeat in this year's legislative elections instead of trying to oust incoming Minority Leader Mark Pafford, D-West Palm Beach. Last week, Rep. Dwayne Taylor of Daytona Beach announced he would challenge Pafford for the position." "FDP Chair Allison Tant Rips Challenge to Mark Pafford."

Run! Jeb Run!

According to Politico, "Jeb Bush’s Greatest Weakness" is his family name.

Actually, Jebbie's greatest weakness (among many) may actually be, as an article in the Washington Post put it, Jebbie's "shoot-first, take-no-advice method of governing," which resulted in back-to-back terms "marred by frequent ethics scandals, official bungling and the inability of the government he downsized to meet growing demands for state services, including education and aid for the infirm and the elderly."

Gift disclosure records show that in the last four years Bondi has accepted more than $51,000 worth of meals, hotels and free trips - to conferences in locales ranging from California, Wyoming and Michigan as well as for trips to Mexico and Israel with other attorneys generals.

The Times this week reported that Bondi allowed a Washington, D.C., attorney with the firm of Dickstein Shapiro to recuperate from surgery at Bondi’s house. The newspaper reported the stay came after Lori Kalani and two others lawyers from her firm flew on a chartered flight with Bondi to a conference being held by the GOP organization at a resort hotel located on Mackinac Island in Michigan.

Dickstein Shapiro has represented companies who come under scrutiny by other states and it also represented companies involved in a dispute over hotel taxes. One email obtained by the Times showed Kalani pointing out to one of Bondi’s top attorneys how judges in Florida had ruled for the companies. Bondi’s office in 2013 dismissed a case brought by previous Attorney General Bill McCollum against online travel companies. Another chain of emails show that Kalani also played a role in helping schedule a profile of Bondi for a trade magazine.

Voucher madness

"With voucher proponents backing their challengers, three public schoolteachers lost their seats in the Florida House last week." "Election altered balance of Florida’s school choice debate."

And Scott Didn't Schedule A Press Conference?

"Most of the workers targeted are based at the company's Jacksonville headquarters. Spokeswoman Melanie Cost tells The Florida Times-Union (http://bit.ly/10V5KPO ) that layoffs are possible if fewer than 300 workers take the buyouts." "CSX Corp. plans to cut 300 management workers."

Run Jeb! Run!

"Former President George W. Bush said he and his father believe Jeb Bush should run for president but ultimately the former Florida governor must make a decision regardless of any pressure from the family." "Presidents 41, 43 want Jeb Bush run for White House."

Rubio 'agin net neutrality

Kevin Derby: "Rubio, Business Community Oppose Obama's Internet Neutrality Plan."

"Floridians are living with the consequences"

The Gainesville Sun editors slam "the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to hear another challenge to the [Affordable Care Act]. The lawsuit argues that language in the act suggests the federal government shouldn't be able to offer health-insurance subsidies to individuals in Florida and the 33 other states that didn't create their own insurance exchanges."

It's ridiculous that the court would contemplate ignoring the intentions of the act's authors due to nothing more than poorly-crafted legislative language. In 2012, the court found the act's individual mandate to be constitutional but allowed states to opt out of an expansion of Medicaid.

Floridians are still living with the consequences. Our Legislature refused to expand Medicaid, leaving an estimated 764,000 residents in a coverage gap. Research has shown that thousands of needless deaths could be prevented and millions in economic benefits gained through the expansion.

If Washington and Tallahassee had their priorities straight, those stakes would be on the minds of lawmakers as the Affordable Care Act enters its second year of enrollment. Instead, Republicans are more interested in attacking the president's signature accomplishment than protecting the health of their constituents.

Amendment 2 without Morgan

"John Morgan ranks as one of the biggest electoral losers in Florida after last week’s elections. Morgan’s old employee Charlie Crist lost against Rick Scott and Amendment 2 on medical marijuana, which the trial lawyer largely bankrolled, won the popular vote, but came up short." "Any Any Amendment 2 Medical Marijuana Do-Over Needs an AWOL John Morgan."

The hospitality was extended to Lori Kalani, a lobbyist and lawyer from Dickstein Shapiro, the Washington-based firm that specializes in building personal relationships with state attorneys general to help corporate clients avoid becoming targets of investigation.

The circumstances of the trip to Mackinac Island, Mich., and the subsequent offer to host Ms. Kalani in convalescence were uncovered as part of a continuing investigation by The New York Times into the relationship between private lawyers and state attorneys general. They make vivid how aggressively Dickstein and firms like it have worked in recent years to try to influence top state law enforcement officials.

Representatives from Dickstein Shapiro did not respond to requests for comment. A spokeswoman for Ms. Bondi declined to comment for this article.

"Where there’s a Bush, there’s a debacle — too often with Florida at the center of it"

Stephen Goldstein writes that, "since Americans have the historical perspective of fruit flies, it’s time to take a walk down memory lane and remind ourselves that where there’s a Bush, there’s a debacle — too often with Florida at the center of it and the rest of the nation wondering what’s wrong with us." Read Goldstein's tame list of Bush debacles here: "Jeb Bush Could Win in 2016, But He’ll Have To Rely on The United States of Amnesia."

FlaGOP dilemma

Jeff Henderson: "Florida Republicans could have a sizable dilemma in the coming weeks. The political waters simply aren’t deep enough for both Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio. If Bush and Rubio both run for the White House, they would cannibalize each other’s support. Certainly the Bush and Rubio camps are aware of this. The question is, which one will jump in and which one will stay out?"

Bush is starting to get a little more attention. Part of this comes from his brother’s new book on their father, which was the front page story of Monday’s USA Today and is getting national media attention. In the resulting interviews, George W. Bush is pretty clear on what he thinks his brother should do: run for president in 2016.

But Rubio is also testing the presidential waters. He was active in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina in this year’s elections and has said he will make a decision about 2016 in the coming weeks.

Still, even as he keeps the door open to 2016, things are starting to shape up to keep Rubio in the Senate. Rubio was pretty adamant that he did not want to keep serving in the Senate if Democrats remained in charge. With the Republicans now controlling the Senate and looking ahead to 2016 when they face a tough fight to keep it, pressure will rise on Rubio to stay where he is.

Health Insurance Again in the Balance For 1 Million Floridians

"For 1 Million Floridians, Health Insurance Again in the Balance as Supreme Court Rethinks Subsidies."

The Public Records Litigation business

"In Lawsuits Statewide, Questions of Profits and Public Records." See also "In lawsuits statewide, questions of profits and public records."

"The nation's largest swing state"

"Close contests this year reaffirmed Florida's significance as the nation's largest swing state, sharply divided and capable of shifting between political parties." "Florida's close elections set stage for 2016."

Depends what you mean by "Micky Mouse"

"Florida doesn't count votes for 'Mickey Mouse' any more."

"Nine of them failed"

The Gainesville Sun editors: "The Florida Legislature has asked voters to approve a dozen amendments to the state constitution in the last two general elections. Nine of them failed." "Failed attempts."

That's why they're called the "MSM"

Not surprisingly, Lloyd Brown doesn't "understood the liberal fascination with campaign spending."

Liberals relentlessly bombard the electorate with "news" about how much candidates are spending and who is giving them money.

Clearly, the media believe voters are so stupid that they will vote for whoever puts the most ads on TV. The complementary assumption is that politicians are beholden to donors -- although in the liberal media this only seems to apply to conservative politicians.

So, why wouldn't the lib media refuse to run the ads on their TV stations and in their newspapers if it is helping to subvert democracy?

That ain't gonna happen. Election-year ads help TV stations and newspapers earn big, fat profits.

Did you think the media were comprised of charitable organizations?

Just what we needed . . .

"The state Supreme Court on Monday refused to take up a dispute about whether voters should choose a replacement for a Northeast Florida judge, ensuring that Gov. Rick Scott will have the power to fill the post." "Supreme Court Clears Way for Scott to Appoint Judge."

"The Only Mandate From This Election"

"Florida can congratulate itself on yet another dubious distinction: political parties, corporate patrons, gazillionaires, dark money groups, and the candidates themselves spent $345 million on the 2014 elections — the most expensive in the nation." "The Only Mandate From This Election: Protect Florida’s Environment."

1. Florida isn’t purple. It’s schizophrenic.

2. Obama’s election machine without Obama is not a machine.

3. Don't bash the polling just yet.

4. TV ads are still king in Florida.

5. Libertarians need to build a party instead of a Twitter troll army.

6. Vote early or die.

7. Medical marijuana is meh for Democrats.

8. The Republican Party is a cult of policy compared to the Democrats’ cult of personality.

9. Florida Democrats’ greatest strength in a presidential year is a weakness in midterms.

10. Florida Republicans’ greatest strength in a midterm year is a weakness in presidential years.

DWS "Licks Her Wounds"

"Debbie Wasserman Schultz ranks as one of the biggest losers of the 2014 election cycle. While she had no problem defeating Republican Joe Kaufman last week, as chairwoman of the DNC, Wasserman Schultz is tarnished by her party’s loss of the Senate and gubernatorial defeats across the country." "Debbie Wasserman Schultz Licks Her Wounds After Brutal Election for Democrats."

Martin recount over

"A proposed 1-cent sales tax increase fell short for Martin County for the second time in five days Saturday during a recount held by the county’s elections canvassing board. The proposal was defeated by 72 votes after Saturday’s recount with 30,343 opposed and 30,271 in favor, Martin County Supervisor of Elections Vicki Davis said. A total of 62,479 ballots were tallied with canvassing board members dismissing some as either under-votes or over-votes." "Recount confirms voters defeated Martin County sales tax increase."

Puffing charters

The Tampa Trib has never seen a charter it didn't think was marvelous: "New Pepin charter school ‘making it work’ in shopping center site."

The Jeb-train is about to leave the station

To the delight of FlaDems, Dubya claims there's "'50-50 chance' his brother Jeb will run for president in 2016. And he has previously said that he's been urging Jeb to enter the race."

But Jeb Bush could have an uphill climb, should he choose to run. A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll found that among registered voters, only 26 percent think he'd make a good president — which ranks him higher than some of his potential Republican rivals, but falls short of a vote of confidence [and only half the percentage of registered voters who think Clinton would make a good president].

Aside from the blah, blah, blah about a "Bush dynasty," Jebbie will be a media dream candidate because of the conceit he is some sort of intellectual policy wonk; that, however, will soon be exposed as a sham: Jeb after all "comes from a family that’s famous for its curious relationship with the English language. . . . But while his brother and father are more famous for a certain unfamiliarity with the rigors of the mother tongue, Jeb’s verbal slips tend to reveal a mean-spiritedness that seems less benign." See "When Jeb Bush speaks, people cringe."

"GOP Girl Power"

Nancy Smith: "won't try to tell you Republican women are exactly where they want to be -- or anywhere near where they should be -- but certainly they made great strides this election to push back against the Democrats' agenda, present a compelling case for middle class issues and challenge the party on the left with more GOP women on the ballot than ever before." "War on Women, My Foot! GOP Girl Power Is Emerging."

"Signs are key"

"Signs are key to political campaigns."

"Floridians will watch"

The Sun Sentinel editorial board: "As Americans watch to see how Republicans in Congress use their new power, Floridians will watch to see how Republicans in Tallahassee prepare the party for the 2016 election in the nation's largest swing state." "To win in 2016, here's what GOP should do now."

A Brevard thing

Curious:

• Republicans are 42 percent of registered voters in Brevard.

• Republicans cast 47 percent of ballots Tuesday.

• Republican Gov. Rick Scott won Brevard with more than 52 percent of the vote.

Florida voters gave the governor four more years in office, but more people voted against him than for him. Unofficial election returns gave Scott a 1.1 percent victory over Democrat Charlie Crist, a margin of nearly 66,000 votes out of 6 million cast, nearly identical to Scott’s 61,550-vote win over Alex Sink four years ago. Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie got 223,000 votes.

By contrast, Republicans in the Legislature picked up a supermajority in the House and preserved their majority in the Senate, essentially restoring the numbers they had in 2010 when Scott was first elected in the tea party wave.

The results are a reminder that Florida remains a deeply divided state with a majority that swings right during the mid-term elections and swings left in presidential years.

The returns also show that, even in a year in which Republicans swept most competitive seats and the Florida GOP invested more than $100 million reelecting the governor, Scott’s political persona remains weak. He will go down in the history books as the only governor elected twice without getting a majority of the vote either time.

The gambling industry gave $8.6 million. Florida Power & Light gave $7.5 million. U.S. Sugar gave $2.7 million. The telecom industry gave $1.5 million. The construction industry gave $1.8 million. The healthcare industry gave $2.3 million. Charter school and school choice proponents gave $900,000, and the business lobby, which collects money from all those entities, gave more than $10 million.

Run! Marco, Run!

"Sen. Marco Rubio says he'll make presidential decision in weeks."

Still the same

"Candidates for the Florida House spent a combined $23.8 million on their races." "Big money, little turnover in Florida House races."

"GOP sweep of state seats fueled by national money"

"The single biggest benefactor of Gov. Rick Scott's re-election campaign also was crucial in clinching races from Maine to Michigan, bringing the number of Republicans in governor's mansions to a nearly two-decade peak."

The Republican Governors Association contributed $18.5 million to Scott, a record amount from the Washington, D.C., fundraising organization, but a fraction of the $130 million it spent nationwide.

RGA spent $14 million to help re-elect Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder. It helped secure another four years for embattled Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback by contributing $5 million. And it spent $27 million flipping what had been Democratic strongholds in Massachusetts, Maryland, Arkansas and Illinois.

With RGA's massive fundraising, Republicans picked up two more governor's mansions Tuesday, padding their lead over Democrats to 31-18, the most lopsided balance in 17 years.

Since the U.S. Supreme Court 2010 ruling in Citizens United allowed unlimited contributions to third-party groups like RGA, Republicans have taken the upper hand over Democrats in steering money into races for governor, state legislature and attorney general.

"Democrats got their clocks cleaned"

Scott Maxwell: "It's hard to overstate how badly Democrats got their clocks cleaned last week — continuing a decade-long tradition of losing in a state where they outnumber Republicans."

Some Dems whine they were outspent by special interests. And they were. But Democrats need to look in the mirror when playing the blame game. The party didn't even try to compete in some of the state's biggest races. Democrats were MIA in two of three Cabinet contests. Some congressional candidates were so lame that one actually left the state halfway through the campaign. And even though Democrats did have a strong candidate in the attorney general's race, the party abandoned him financially. Democrats spend on races they lose. They ignore races they could win. And they have no bench.

An exercise in flip-floppery

The Tampa Trib editors: "It’s easy to forget that Scott didn’t move to Florida until 2003. It takes a while for transplants to fully appreciate all the diverse needs of this beautiful state."

But the governor’s outlook clearly evolved during his first term. We hope he further broadens his horizon in the second.

Fight over Democratic leadership

"Rep. Dwayne Taylor, D-Daytona Beach, confirmed that he would challenge incoming House Minority Leader Mark Pafford, D-West Palm Beach, at a caucus meeting scheduled for Nov. 17, one day before of the Legislature’s organizational session." "A fight over Democratic leadership in Florida."

"Could Crist have expanded Medicaid?"

"To hear Florida Gov. Rick Scott and Charlie Crist tell it, the 2014 gubernatorial campaign isn’t about policy positions, but more about which candidate did less as governor." "PolitiFact Florida: Could Charlie Crist have expanded Medicaid in Florida?."